Climate, Energy & Environment
Explainer: Why Kenya is Considered a High Climate Risk for Development Bank
Kenya’s latest climate risk profile presents a summary of climatic trends over two decades, from 1991 to 2020. It reveals that approximately 68 percent of natural disasters in the country are attributed to extreme climatic events, primarily floods and droughts, while the remaining 32 percent is linked to disease epidemics.
NAIROBI, Aug 07 (IPS) – Climate change-related extreme weather jeopardizes Kenya’s development agenda; even though it contributes very little to global warming, it is marked as a high-risk country by development banks.Kenya contributes less than 0.1 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions every year, yet development banks have flagged the East African nation as a high climate risk. This is due to extreme weather changes that are increasingly threatening the country’s development agenda, widening socio-economic inequalities, and deepening rural poverty and hunger.
Climate change is a long-term shift in temperatures and weather patterns. Climate risk is the potential harm caused by climate change, such as financial, social, and environmental destruction and loss of life. Country-specific climate risk profiles are a summary of an analysis of climate trends over a long period of time, revealing how variability in weather patterns affects life and livelihoods.
Countries are advised to use these profiles to inform their development agenda, as failure to do so can significantly derail achievement of set development goals. For instance, unpredictability in weather patterns has a negative impact on certain sectors of Kenya’s economy.
This includes agriculture, tourism, horticulture, livestock and pastoralism, and forest products. Nearly 98 percent of agriculture is rain fed. Using climate risk projections, the country can invest in irrigation to reduce the impact of climate change on the sector, as approximately 75 percent of Kenyans draw their livelihood from agriculture.
Kenya’s most recent climate risk profile provides a climatic trend summary spanning two decades from 1991 to 2020, revealing that an estimated 68 percent of natural disasters in Kenya are caused by extreme climatic events, mostly floods and droughts. The remaining 32 percent represents disease epidemic.

High Temperatures Causing Frequent, Intense Droughts
Overall, 16 drought events are on record from 1991 to 2020, affecting millions of people and causing an overall estimated damage of USD 1.5 billion. Despite floods being a more recent phenomenon in Kenya they are becoming increasingly frequent, resulting in 45 flood events within the same period. While a pattern of droughts began to emerge as far back as 1975, a pattern of floods has only begun to emerge from 2012 to 2020.
A repeating pattern of droughts and floods costs the country approximately 3 to 5 percent of its annual Gross Domestic Product. Over the past two decades, Kenya’s mean annual temperature was 24.2 degree Celsius—with a high of 30.3 degree Celsius and a low of 18.3 degree Celsius.
To give a perspective of average temperatures in Kenya, 2023 was the hottest year on record and 2024 is following the trend. According to the Gilbert Ouma Associate Professor, Meteorology, University of Nairobi writing in The Conversation the capital Nairobi average temperatures fare normally moderate, between 24°C and 25°C on the higher side and 17°C-18°C on the lower side.
“These are generally very comfortable temperatures. However, in the December-January-February period, maximum temperatures are normally high, ranging between 26°C and 27°C.
“This year, temperatures in February went up to between 29°C and 30°C, even hitting 31°C. This is about 6°C higher than normal Nairobi temperatures. That is a big difference and our bodies are bound to feel the difference. If such an increase is sustained for a long time, it can lead to a heat wave.”
Droughts have been a most pressing and persistent problem in Kenya. As far back as 1975, drought cycles used to occur every 10 years. But as climate change escalates in both frequency and intensity, the drought cycle reduced from every 10 years to every five years, to every two to three years.
Each year there is an annual dry spell and a food shortage and the regularity of extremely dry periods makes it difficult for the country to recover from one drought to the next.

A History of Drought Cycles in Kenya From 1991 to 2020
Drought is a regular occurrence in Kenya. In 1991–1992, more than 1.5 million people were affected by drought. This was followed by another cycle of widespread drought in 1995–1996 that affected at least 1.4 million people.
In January 1997, the government declared drought a national disaster, affecting more than two million people, and the famine continued into 1998. Shortly after, in 1999–2000, an estimated 4.4 million people were in dire need of food aid due to a severe famine. As far as natural disasters go, this was declared the worst in the preceding 37 years.
The 1998–2000 drought cost the country an estimated USD 2.8 billion, and this was largely due to crops and livestock loss, forest fires, damage to fisheries, reduced hydropower generation, reduced industrial production and reduced water supplies.
In 2004, failure of the March to June long rains led to a severe drought that left more than three million Kenyans in need of urgent food aid. In December 2005, the government declared drought a national catastrophe, affecting at least 2.5 million people in northern Kenya alone.
The drought in 2008 affected 1.4 million people and an overall 10 million people were at risk of hunger after an unsuccessful harvest due to drought in late 2009 and into early 2010. The severe and prolonged drought caused the country USD 12.1 billion in damages and losses, and cost over USD 1.7 billion in recovery.
There are 47 counties in Kenya. As only 20 percent of Kenya receives high and regular rainfall, Kenya’s arid and semi-arid (ASAL) areas comprise 18 to 20 of the poorest counties, which are particularly at risk from increased aridity and periods of drought.
ASAL regions have endured three significantly severe droughts from 2010 to 2020. The 2010–2011 period was severe and prolonged, affecting at least 3.7 million people, causing USD 12.1 billion in damages and losses, and costing over USD 1.7 billion in recovery and reconstruction needs.
That cycle was followed by the 2016–2017 drought. The 2020–2022 famine, which was the most severe, longest and widespread as more than 4.2 million people, or 24 percent of the ASAL population were facing high levels of acute food insecurity.

Overview of Natural Disaster Events in Kenya, 1991–2020
Kenya is increasingly enduring periods of intense, heavy rainfall. During this period, there were a total of 45 flood events, directly affecting more than 2.5 million people and causing an estimated damage of USD 137 million. These events took place in 1997, 1998, 2002, 2012 and 2020, as they were short, frequent and intense.
Unlike drought and famine, Kenya’s history with floods is much shorter. There were many consecutive drought seasons from 1991 to 1997. From 1997, a pattern of floods begun to emerge in this East African country.
It all started with the historic severe and deadly El Nino floods in 1997–1998 that were widespread and affected 1.5 million people. This was followed by the 2002 floods, that affected 150,000 people. Kenya has experienced flooding almost every year from 2010 to 2020.

Projected Risk Moving Forward
“From 2020 to 2050, projections show that ASAL regions will continue to receive decreasing rainfall. Temperatures in the country will continue to rise by 1.7 degree Celsius by 2050 and even higher by approximately 3.5 degree Celsius before the end of this century. The escalation in climate change will increase our climate risk,” Mildred Nthiga, a climate change independent researcher in East Africa, tells IPS.
“We will have even more frequent and damaging floods, and this will be followed by longer periods of drought. We have already started to experience some worrisome landslides and mudslides and, this will become an even bigger concern, especially in the highlands.”
Stressing that additional soil erosion and water logging of crops will significantly affect agricultural productivity, reducing yields and increasing food security. There will also be significant economic losses, severe damage to farmlands and infrastructure.
Worse still, as already witnessed in the recent 2024 deadly floods—human causalities. This will deepen rural poverty and hunger, and derail Kenya’s progress towards achieving the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals.
Note: This feature is published with the support of Open Society Foundations.
IPS UN Bureau Report
Renewable Energy & Access
Kenya Court Halts $2B Lamu Coal Project
The 1,050MW Lamu coal plant faced a decade of opposition from environmental groups and UNESCO advocates. The verdict now strengthens Kenya’s clean energy transition.
Kenya’s High Court halts a $2 billion Lamu coal plant near a UNESCO site, citing environmental and heritage violations.
NAIROBI, Oct. 17 — Kenya’s High Court has blocked construction of the proposed $2 billion Lamu coal plant, citing serious environmental and social concerns. The ruling delivered virtually from Malindi by Justice Francis Mwangi Njoroge on October 16, 2025, is a major victory for activists and local residents who have fought the project for years.
The 1,050-megawatt facility, planned for Kenya’s historic Lamu County, where al-Shabaab militants are threatening a $ 25 billion Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia -Transport (LAPSSET) corridor project,was to be the country’s first coal-powered station. However, the court found that the developers failed to conduct proper public participation and environmental assessments before securing government approvals.
“The approval process lacked meaningful engagement with affected communities,” Justice Njoroge said. “The constitutional right to a clean and healthy environment must take precedence over economic ambition.”
A Decade of Controversy
The project was led by Amu Power Company Ltd, a consortium majority-owned by Centum Investment Co. Plc — one of Kenya’s largest investment firms. Other key partners included Gulf Energy Ltd and China Power Global, which was expected to handle engineering and construction under the $2 billion deal.
Since its inception in 2015, the Lamu coal plant has faced intense opposition. Local fishermen, conservationists, and global environmental organizations such as Greenpeace Africa and Natural Justice warned that the plant would damage marine ecosystems and pollute air quality. The site lies close to Lamu Old Town — a UNESCO World Heritage Site — which risked losing its protected status if construction went ahead.
In 2019, the National Environment Tribunal (NET) suspended the plant’s environmental license, ruling that the environmental review had been flawed. Amu Power appealed the decision, but the project stalled as government policy began shifting toward cleaner energy sources.
Kenya’s Energy Shift
Kenya’s energy mix has changed dramatically over the past decade. As of 2024, Kenya Power reports that 86% of electricity comes from renewable sources such as geothermal, hydro, wind, and solar.
The Lamu coal project was originally conceived to provide cheap, reliable energy for industrial users. Yet falling renewable costs and international climate pressure have made coal both economically and politically unviable.
“Coal no longer fits Kenya’s green growth agenda,” said Joseph Njoroge, former Principal Secretary for Energy. “The economics simply don’t add up, and the environmental cost is too high.”
In 2022, the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum reaffirmed Kenya’s commitment to 100% clean energy by 2030, aligning with the Paris Agreement and national Vision 2030 goals.
Impact on Investors and Communities
The court’s ruling carries deep implications for both investors and local livelihoods. Centum’s subsidiary, Amu Power, had already invested around KSh 3.2 billion ($21 million) in feasibility studies, design work, and land acquisition.
A company spokesperson said Amu Power was “reviewing the judgment and considering its legal options.”
For Lamu residents, however, the decision was cause for celebration.
“This is not just a win for Lamu—it’s a win for all Kenyans who believe development must respect people and planet,” said Omar Elmawi, coordinator of the DeCOALonize Coalition, which led local resistance efforts.
Human rights groups, including Amnesty International Kenya and the Kenya Human Rights Commission, welcomed the verdict, urging the government to compensate families affected by earlier land acquisitions. They also called for the redirection of public investment toward renewable infrastructure in coastal Kenya.
A Turning Point for Green Governance
Experts believe the Kenya court ruling could reshape how African countries balance industrialization with environmental responsibility.
“Kenya’s courts are increasingly defining the country’s sustainable development trajectory,” said Dr. Wanjira Mathai, Managing Director for Africa at the World Resources Institute. “This judgment shows that rule of law and green growth can advance together.”
The High Court decision effectively voids the Lamu plant’s environmental license. Any attempt to revive the project would require a fresh environmental review and new public consultations — a process expected to take years.
For now, the ruling positions Kenya as a continental leader in renewable energy governance. It also signals to international investors that environmental accountability is no longer optional in Africa’s infrastructure landscape.
Climate, Energy & Environment
U.S. Backs 1-Year AGOA Extension Amid Trade Strains
The Trump administration’s tariff hikes have eroded AGOA’s benefits. A short-term extension may not be enough to restore African confidence.
U.S. supports a 1-year AGOA extension; African exporters may suffer amid tariffs and tight deadlines for renewal.
A senior White House official confirmed that the Trump administration supports a one-year extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which is set to expire at the end of the month. While the move offers some reassurance to African exporters, significant uncertainty remains over whether Congress will act in time.
Trade flows underscore the stakes
U.S. trade with Africa has been rising: in 2024, total goods trade reached roughly $72 billion, with exports to Africa at $32.4 billion and imports at $39.6 billion, according to the U.S. Trade Representative’s office. The trade deficit stood at about $7.2 billion.
Under AGOA specifically, U.S. imports from beneficiary countries dropped to about $8 billion in 2024, down from $9.3 billion in 2023, according to a Congressional Research Service note. In 2023, imports under AGOA totaled nearly $9.7 billion, led by crude oil ($4.2 billion), apparel ($1.1 billion) and agricultural products, data from the Center for Global Development shows.
These figures illustrate how much is now at risk if AGOA were allowed to lapse.
Background: a pact under pressure
First enacted in 2000 under President Bill Clinton, AGOA grants eligible sub-Saharan African countries duty-free access to the U.S. market across many product lines. Over the decades, it has become a primary vehicle of U.S.–Africa economic engagement.
However, that preferential access has been eroded by the Trump administration’s unilateral tariffs—ranging from 10 percent to 30 percent—on several African exports. These measures have muted AGOA’s advantages, creating distrust among beneficiary nations.
Supporters argue AGOA has sustained hundreds of thousands of jobs in over 30 countries and served as a counterbalance to China’s rising presence in Africa.
Renewal prospects and obstacles
Despite White House backing, the window for Congress to renew AGOA is narrow. Leaders anticipate its extension may need to ride on a stopgap funding bill, a common legislative strategy for time-sensitive measures.
Still, internal divisions complicate that path. Some U.S. lawmakers question AGOA’s long-term efficacy and fairness, especially in a climate where tariffs have distorted the original benefits.
From the African side, pressure is intensifying. Delegations from Kenya, Lesotho, South Africa and others have urgently lobbied lawmakers and trade officials to act. Lesotho’s trade minister warned that delays could cost garment sector jobs.
South Africa’s trade minister, Parks Tau, voiced cautious optimism, noting bipartisan support in Congress but suggesting any extension is likely to be short (one to three years) to allow for later reforms. Tau is also in talks with U.S. officials over tariff relief on South African exports hit by 30 percent duties.
Consequences of lapse
If AGOA expires—even temporarily—analysts forecast sharp harm to sectors such as apparel, metals, chemicals, and agriculture. The International Trade Centre estimates Lesotho’s clothing exports could fall by nearly 29 percent, while South Africa’s car exports might shrink 23 percent by 2029.
Countries like Kenya, Tanzania, Madagascar, and Eswatini are also seen as particularly vulnerable. Some firms already say they are cancelling U.S. orders or pivoting to alternative supply chains, according to Business of Fashion.
Beyond the economic toll, a lapse in AGOA would represent a diplomatic setback for the U.S. in Africa—particularly as China and others deepen their trade and investment presence across the continent.
The road ahead
A multiyear renewal seems unlikely in the short term. A one-year extension is the most politically feasible option under current constraints. Still, such a stopgap would not fully restore trust or correct structural distortions caused by recent tariffs.
Which way Congress leans—and whether it can build bipartisan momentum quickly—will determine whether AGOA endures, is reshaped, or quietly disappears. Time is ticking.
Renewable Energy & Access
Ethiopia Signs Nuclear Energy Agreement with Russia to Develop Power Plant
If completed, Ethiopia will become the second sub-Saharan African nation with nuclear power. Experts say the Ethiopia-Russia deal could serve as a model for Africa’s clean energy transition.
On September 25, Ethiopia signed a nuclear energy deal with Russia in Moscow, aiming to diversify power sources, build local expertise, and boost regional energy security.
Ethiopia Signs Landmark Nuclear Energy Deal with Russia to Diversify Power Sources
Ethiopia took a historic step on September 25, 2025, by signing a nuclear energy cooperation agreement with Russia in Moscow. The deal, formalized during a nuclear energy forum, involves the construction of a nuclear power plant in Ethiopia and represents a major leap in the country’s energy strategy. Ethiopian Electric Power CEO Ashebir Balcha and Rosatom CEO Aleksei Likhachev signed the comprehensive action plan, highlighting the nations’ commitment to collaboration in energy technology and infrastructure.
Strategic Significance for Ethiopia
The agreement outlines a roadmap for building the nuclear facility, covering technical planning, financing, and the creation of a Nuclear Science and Technology Center in Ethiopia. The deal also includes training Ethiopian personnel in nuclear operations to develop domestic expertise. For Ethiopia, this project marks a critical step toward diversifying its energy mix beyond hydropower, solar, and wind.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed emphasized the importance of the initiative: “Nuclear technology provides reliable, low-emission power, strengthens food security, optimizes water management, and empowers our scientists.” He added that Ethiopia’s rapidly growing economy and population of over 130 million demand a diversified energy portfolio. Current investments, including the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), are not sufficient to meet future energy needs.
The Deal’s Scope and Capacity Building
Under the agreement, Rosatom will assist Ethiopia in constructing the nuclear power plant while building local technical capacity. Ethiopian engineers and technicians will receive specialized training in nuclear science, safety protocols, and operations. This ensures that the project does not only generate power but also strengthens Ethiopia’s scientific and technological base.
Ashebir Balcha, CEO of Ethiopian Electric Power, said: “This nuclear facility is more than energy generation; it’s about building knowledge, capacity, and innovation for Ethiopia’s future.” The initiative positions Ethiopia to emerge as a regional hub for advanced energy technology.
Regional and Continental Implications
If completed, Ethiopia would become only the second sub-Saharan African country after South Africa to operate a nuclear power plant. This milestone would demonstrate Africa’s capacity to adopt advanced, low-carbon energy solutions and could serve as a blueprint for other nations facing surging energy demand.
For example, this May, neighbouring Kenya signed a $1b renewable energy deal positioning itself as Africa’s green leader.
Energy analysts highlight that Ethiopia’s growing population, urbanization, and industrialization require a resilient energy system. According to the World Bank, electricity demand in Ethiopia is projected to double over the next decade. Nuclear energy, with high reliability and low greenhouse gas emissions, offers a sustainable solution to meet this demand.
The development also has broader geopolitical implications. By partnering with Russia, Ethiopia strengthens strategic ties while signaling its intention to diversify energy sources and reduce dependence on a single energy type. The project enhances regional energy security, providing a potential model for neighboring countries in East Africa.
Risks and Challenges
Despite the promise, nuclear energy projects are complex, expensive, and politically sensitive. Ensuring safe operations, adhering to international safety standards, and securing consistent funding are critical for the project’s success. Ethiopia must also manage public perception and regional concerns over nuclear proliferation, while demonstrating transparency and regulatory compliance.
A Vision for Sustainable Energy
The Ethiopia-Russia nuclear partnership represents a forward-looking approach to energy security. Combined with hydropower, solar, and wind, nuclear energy will contribute to a diversified, sustainable power system capable of supporting economic growth, innovation, and social development.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed stressed: “The nuclear deal is a strategic investment in our nation’s human capital, technological capacity, and future prosperity.” By integrating nuclear power, Ethiopia sets a precedent for the continent, showing that African nations can safely and effectively adopt advanced energy solutions to meet rising demand.
Explore further: Rosatom | Ethiopian Electric Power | Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam | South Africa Nuclear Program
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