Climate, Energy & Environment
Donald Trump’s Victory: Impact on East Africa
As East Africa readies for a Donald Trump return, leaders balance caution with optimism on future U.S. ties. Trade and security may grow under his bilateral approach, yet concerns remain over potential aid cuts and climate inaction. Trump’s second term presents both opportunities and challenges for the region in a shifting global landscape
: How President Trump’s 2024 election win could influence trade, aid, and geopolitical dynamics in East Africa. Discover potential regional changes and effects.
His return to the White House has sparked questions across the globe, including in East Africa, where nations like Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, and Ethiopia are anticipating shifts in U.S. foreign policy.
From trade and investment to geopolitical rivalry, East Africa stands at a critical juncture with the potential return of Trump’s America-first policies.
Trade Relations: A Potential Shift in AGOA and Bilateral Agreements
East Africa has long benefited from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a trade initiative launched in 2000 that allows African nations to export certain goods to the U.S. duty-free.
During his first term, Trump questioned the effectiveness of such multilateral agreements, often prioritising bilateral arrangements. This stance, usually dubbed “America First,” sparked concerns among African nations.
“President Trump’s approach to trade agreements tends to favour stronger bilateral ties over broader multilateral agreements,” noted former trade advisor Robert Lighthizer in 2020.
With Trump’s return, experts are speculating whether he might alter AGOA’s structure or even let it expire in 2025.
East African nations like Kenya have previously engaged in direct discussions with the U.S. for individual trade deals.
In July 2020, former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta initiated negotiations with the Trump administration for a bilateral free trade agreement. Kenya’s current leaders may find Trump’s second term an opportune moment to push for a more solidified bilateral arrangement with the U.S. to secure market access.
Foreign Aid and Development Funding
Foreign aid has been a vital source of support for many East African countries, particularly in sectors like health and infrastructure.
The U.S. remains one of the largest aid contributors to Africa. However, Trump’s first administration proposed significant cuts to foreign aid.
In 2018, for example, the administration suggested a 30% cut to the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) budgets, a move that was met with resistance in Congress.
During a 2017 White House press briefing, Trump stated, “We need to stop sending money overseas and focus on rebuilding our own country.”
Though the cuts were partially blocked by Congress, a similar agenda in Trump’s second term could create financial uncertainty for development projects across East Africa.
Programs like the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which has saved millions of lives in East Africa since its inception in 2003, may face renewed scrutiny under a cost-cutting administration.
Experts warn that reduced funding could stall progress in combating diseases like HIV/AIDS and malaria, which remain critical public health concerns.
Military Cooperation: Counter-Terrorism Efforts in Somalia
East Africa’s strategic location has made it a key partner in U.S. counter-terrorism efforts, particularly in Somalia, where the militant group Al-Shabaab remains active.
The Trump administration made headlines in December 2020 by withdrawing approximately 700 U.S. troops from Somalia, emphasising the need to “bring our troops home.”
However, some of Trump’s advisors noted that he remains committed to securing U.S. interests abroad. “Our troops’ departure doesn’t mean we’re abandoning our interests in Africa,” stated former U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper in 2020.
If Trump continues to prioritize U.S. security interests through remote strategies,East African countries might find themselves bearing a larger burden in counter-terrorism.
Somalia’s fragile government, along with neighbouring countries, may need to strengthen regional alliances and depend more on African-led security initiatives.
Geopolitical Influence: U.S.-China Rivalry in Africa
During Trump’s previous term, his administration increased its rhetoric against China, frequently cautioning African leaders about “debt traps” in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
In a 2018 speech, then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo remarked, “When China comes calling, it’s not always for the good of African nations.”
Trump’s approach to China raised concerns over Africa’s growing dependence on Chinese loans and investments.
Should Trump reengage with East Africa in his second term, we can expect his administration to push African nations toward alternative development partnerships.
Kenya, Tanzania, and Ethiopia, which have welcomed significant Chinese infrastructure investments, might be encouraged to turn to American private investments as an alternative.
Trump’s administration launched the “Prosper Africa” initiative in 2019, aimed at increasing U.S.-Africa trade and investment.
This program may see renewed emphasis under Trump’s second term, especially if he focuses on expanding American influence in the region.
Environmental and Climate Policy Implications
One key area where East Africa may see a divergence with Trump’s policies is climate action.
His withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement in 2017 concerned African leaders, given that Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change. Trump’s previous administration downplayed climate change, and his second term might similarly deprioritise green initiatives.
For countries in East Africa facing droughts, rising temperatures, and desertification, reduced climate collaboration could pose serious risks.
As Kenyan climate activist Elizabeth Wathuti put it, “Climate change is an immediate and real threat for us. We need global action, not indifference.”
If Trump remains steadfast in downplaying climate action, East African nations may turn to the European Union and other allies for environmental partnerships.
Conclusion:
As East Africa prepares for Trump’s return, leaders across the region are both cautious and optimistic about future U.S.-East Africa relations.
While trade and security partnerships may continue to flourish under Trump’s bilateral-focused approach, concerns over foreign aid cuts and climate inaction linger.
For East Africa, Trump’s second presidency presents both opportunities and challenges as the region navigates its path in an increasingly multipolar world.
Renewable Energy & Access
Kenya Court Halts $2B Lamu Coal Project
The 1,050MW Lamu coal plant faced a decade of opposition from environmental groups and UNESCO advocates. The verdict now strengthens Kenya’s clean energy transition.
Kenya’s High Court halts a $2 billion Lamu coal plant near a UNESCO site, citing environmental and heritage violations.
NAIROBI, Oct. 17 — Kenya’s High Court has blocked construction of the proposed $2 billion Lamu coal plant, citing serious environmental and social concerns. The ruling delivered virtually from Malindi by Justice Francis Mwangi Njoroge on October 16, 2025, is a major victory for activists and local residents who have fought the project for years.
The 1,050-megawatt facility, planned for Kenya’s historic Lamu County, where al-Shabaab militants are threatening a $ 25 billion Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia -Transport (LAPSSET) corridor project,was to be the country’s first coal-powered station. However, the court found that the developers failed to conduct proper public participation and environmental assessments before securing government approvals.
“The approval process lacked meaningful engagement with affected communities,” Justice Njoroge said. “The constitutional right to a clean and healthy environment must take precedence over economic ambition.”
A Decade of Controversy
The project was led by Amu Power Company Ltd, a consortium majority-owned by Centum Investment Co. Plc — one of Kenya’s largest investment firms. Other key partners included Gulf Energy Ltd and China Power Global, which was expected to handle engineering and construction under the $2 billion deal.
Since its inception in 2015, the Lamu coal plant has faced intense opposition. Local fishermen, conservationists, and global environmental organizations such as Greenpeace Africa and Natural Justice warned that the plant would damage marine ecosystems and pollute air quality. The site lies close to Lamu Old Town — a UNESCO World Heritage Site — which risked losing its protected status if construction went ahead.
In 2019, the National Environment Tribunal (NET) suspended the plant’s environmental license, ruling that the environmental review had been flawed. Amu Power appealed the decision, but the project stalled as government policy began shifting toward cleaner energy sources.
Kenya’s Energy Shift
Kenya’s energy mix has changed dramatically over the past decade. As of 2024, Kenya Power reports that 86% of electricity comes from renewable sources such as geothermal, hydro, wind, and solar.
The Lamu coal project was originally conceived to provide cheap, reliable energy for industrial users. Yet falling renewable costs and international climate pressure have made coal both economically and politically unviable.
“Coal no longer fits Kenya’s green growth agenda,” said Joseph Njoroge, former Principal Secretary for Energy. “The economics simply don’t add up, and the environmental cost is too high.”
In 2022, the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum reaffirmed Kenya’s commitment to 100% clean energy by 2030, aligning with the Paris Agreement and national Vision 2030 goals.
Impact on Investors and Communities
The court’s ruling carries deep implications for both investors and local livelihoods. Centum’s subsidiary, Amu Power, had already invested around KSh 3.2 billion ($21 million) in feasibility studies, design work, and land acquisition.
A company spokesperson said Amu Power was “reviewing the judgment and considering its legal options.”
For Lamu residents, however, the decision was cause for celebration.
“This is not just a win for Lamu—it’s a win for all Kenyans who believe development must respect people and planet,” said Omar Elmawi, coordinator of the DeCOALonize Coalition, which led local resistance efforts.
Human rights groups, including Amnesty International Kenya and the Kenya Human Rights Commission, welcomed the verdict, urging the government to compensate families affected by earlier land acquisitions. They also called for the redirection of public investment toward renewable infrastructure in coastal Kenya.
A Turning Point for Green Governance
Experts believe the Kenya court ruling could reshape how African countries balance industrialization with environmental responsibility.
“Kenya’s courts are increasingly defining the country’s sustainable development trajectory,” said Dr. Wanjira Mathai, Managing Director for Africa at the World Resources Institute. “This judgment shows that rule of law and green growth can advance together.”
The High Court decision effectively voids the Lamu plant’s environmental license. Any attempt to revive the project would require a fresh environmental review and new public consultations — a process expected to take years.
For now, the ruling positions Kenya as a continental leader in renewable energy governance. It also signals to international investors that environmental accountability is no longer optional in Africa’s infrastructure landscape.
Climate, Energy & Environment
U.S. Backs 1-Year AGOA Extension Amid Trade Strains
The Trump administration’s tariff hikes have eroded AGOA’s benefits. A short-term extension may not be enough to restore African confidence.
U.S. supports a 1-year AGOA extension; African exporters may suffer amid tariffs and tight deadlines for renewal.
A senior White House official confirmed that the Trump administration supports a one-year extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which is set to expire at the end of the month. While the move offers some reassurance to African exporters, significant uncertainty remains over whether Congress will act in time.
Trade flows underscore the stakes
U.S. trade with Africa has been rising: in 2024, total goods trade reached roughly $72 billion, with exports to Africa at $32.4 billion and imports at $39.6 billion, according to the U.S. Trade Representative’s office. The trade deficit stood at about $7.2 billion.
Under AGOA specifically, U.S. imports from beneficiary countries dropped to about $8 billion in 2024, down from $9.3 billion in 2023, according to a Congressional Research Service note. In 2023, imports under AGOA totaled nearly $9.7 billion, led by crude oil ($4.2 billion), apparel ($1.1 billion) and agricultural products, data from the Center for Global Development shows.
These figures illustrate how much is now at risk if AGOA were allowed to lapse.
Background: a pact under pressure
First enacted in 2000 under President Bill Clinton, AGOA grants eligible sub-Saharan African countries duty-free access to the U.S. market across many product lines. Over the decades, it has become a primary vehicle of U.S.–Africa economic engagement.
However, that preferential access has been eroded by the Trump administration’s unilateral tariffs—ranging from 10 percent to 30 percent—on several African exports. These measures have muted AGOA’s advantages, creating distrust among beneficiary nations.
Supporters argue AGOA has sustained hundreds of thousands of jobs in over 30 countries and served as a counterbalance to China’s rising presence in Africa.
Renewal prospects and obstacles
Despite White House backing, the window for Congress to renew AGOA is narrow. Leaders anticipate its extension may need to ride on a stopgap funding bill, a common legislative strategy for time-sensitive measures.
Still, internal divisions complicate that path. Some U.S. lawmakers question AGOA’s long-term efficacy and fairness, especially in a climate where tariffs have distorted the original benefits.
From the African side, pressure is intensifying. Delegations from Kenya, Lesotho, South Africa and others have urgently lobbied lawmakers and trade officials to act. Lesotho’s trade minister warned that delays could cost garment sector jobs.
South Africa’s trade minister, Parks Tau, voiced cautious optimism, noting bipartisan support in Congress but suggesting any extension is likely to be short (one to three years) to allow for later reforms. Tau is also in talks with U.S. officials over tariff relief on South African exports hit by 30 percent duties.
Consequences of lapse
If AGOA expires—even temporarily—analysts forecast sharp harm to sectors such as apparel, metals, chemicals, and agriculture. The International Trade Centre estimates Lesotho’s clothing exports could fall by nearly 29 percent, while South Africa’s car exports might shrink 23 percent by 2029.
Countries like Kenya, Tanzania, Madagascar, and Eswatini are also seen as particularly vulnerable. Some firms already say they are cancelling U.S. orders or pivoting to alternative supply chains, according to Business of Fashion.
Beyond the economic toll, a lapse in AGOA would represent a diplomatic setback for the U.S. in Africa—particularly as China and others deepen their trade and investment presence across the continent.
The road ahead
A multiyear renewal seems unlikely in the short term. A one-year extension is the most politically feasible option under current constraints. Still, such a stopgap would not fully restore trust or correct structural distortions caused by recent tariffs.
Which way Congress leans—and whether it can build bipartisan momentum quickly—will determine whether AGOA endures, is reshaped, or quietly disappears. Time is ticking.
Renewable Energy & Access
Ethiopia Signs Nuclear Energy Agreement with Russia to Develop Power Plant
If completed, Ethiopia will become the second sub-Saharan African nation with nuclear power. Experts say the Ethiopia-Russia deal could serve as a model for Africa’s clean energy transition.
On September 25, Ethiopia signed a nuclear energy deal with Russia in Moscow, aiming to diversify power sources, build local expertise, and boost regional energy security.
Ethiopia Signs Landmark Nuclear Energy Deal with Russia to Diversify Power Sources
Ethiopia took a historic step on September 25, 2025, by signing a nuclear energy cooperation agreement with Russia in Moscow. The deal, formalized during a nuclear energy forum, involves the construction of a nuclear power plant in Ethiopia and represents a major leap in the country’s energy strategy. Ethiopian Electric Power CEO Ashebir Balcha and Rosatom CEO Aleksei Likhachev signed the comprehensive action plan, highlighting the nations’ commitment to collaboration in energy technology and infrastructure.
Strategic Significance for Ethiopia
The agreement outlines a roadmap for building the nuclear facility, covering technical planning, financing, and the creation of a Nuclear Science and Technology Center in Ethiopia. The deal also includes training Ethiopian personnel in nuclear operations to develop domestic expertise. For Ethiopia, this project marks a critical step toward diversifying its energy mix beyond hydropower, solar, and wind.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed emphasized the importance of the initiative: “Nuclear technology provides reliable, low-emission power, strengthens food security, optimizes water management, and empowers our scientists.” He added that Ethiopia’s rapidly growing economy and population of over 130 million demand a diversified energy portfolio. Current investments, including the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), are not sufficient to meet future energy needs.
The Deal’s Scope and Capacity Building
Under the agreement, Rosatom will assist Ethiopia in constructing the nuclear power plant while building local technical capacity. Ethiopian engineers and technicians will receive specialized training in nuclear science, safety protocols, and operations. This ensures that the project does not only generate power but also strengthens Ethiopia’s scientific and technological base.
Ashebir Balcha, CEO of Ethiopian Electric Power, said: “This nuclear facility is more than energy generation; it’s about building knowledge, capacity, and innovation for Ethiopia’s future.” The initiative positions Ethiopia to emerge as a regional hub for advanced energy technology.
Regional and Continental Implications
If completed, Ethiopia would become only the second sub-Saharan African country after South Africa to operate a nuclear power plant. This milestone would demonstrate Africa’s capacity to adopt advanced, low-carbon energy solutions and could serve as a blueprint for other nations facing surging energy demand.
For example, this May, neighbouring Kenya signed a $1b renewable energy deal positioning itself as Africa’s green leader.
Energy analysts highlight that Ethiopia’s growing population, urbanization, and industrialization require a resilient energy system. According to the World Bank, electricity demand in Ethiopia is projected to double over the next decade. Nuclear energy, with high reliability and low greenhouse gas emissions, offers a sustainable solution to meet this demand.
The development also has broader geopolitical implications. By partnering with Russia, Ethiopia strengthens strategic ties while signaling its intention to diversify energy sources and reduce dependence on a single energy type. The project enhances regional energy security, providing a potential model for neighboring countries in East Africa.
Risks and Challenges
Despite the promise, nuclear energy projects are complex, expensive, and politically sensitive. Ensuring safe operations, adhering to international safety standards, and securing consistent funding are critical for the project’s success. Ethiopia must also manage public perception and regional concerns over nuclear proliferation, while demonstrating transparency and regulatory compliance.
A Vision for Sustainable Energy
The Ethiopia-Russia nuclear partnership represents a forward-looking approach to energy security. Combined with hydropower, solar, and wind, nuclear energy will contribute to a diversified, sustainable power system capable of supporting economic growth, innovation, and social development.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed stressed: “The nuclear deal is a strategic investment in our nation’s human capital, technological capacity, and future prosperity.” By integrating nuclear power, Ethiopia sets a precedent for the continent, showing that African nations can safely and effectively adopt advanced energy solutions to meet rising demand.
Explore further: Rosatom | Ethiopian Electric Power | Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam | South Africa Nuclear Program
Fact-check: Ruto, Safaricom Share Sale Claims
Israel Recognizes Somaliland: Global Shockwaves
