Mass arrests, treason charges, and deadly crackdowns follow Tanzania’s disputed October 29 election, raising global concerns over democracy.

November 10, 2025-Tanzania is in the midst of a deepening political crisis following the October 29 general election. The vote has sparked mass arrests, treason charges, and deadly crackdowns on protesters. Analysts warn the unrest could destabilise the nation’s democratic institutions and affect regional economic stability.

Post-Election Violence and Casualties

Reports indicate that hundreds, possibly over a thousand, people have died in the days following the election. The opposition party Chadema claims the death toll exceeds 700. Human rights groups estimate that fatalities could reach 3,000. At a funeral in Dar es Salaam, Archbishop Jude Thaddaeus Ruwa’ichi declared, “The punishment for protests is not to shoot and kill,” highlighting growing outrage over the government’s response.

Families of victims say the military used live ammunition against demonstrators, and local hospitals report treating hundreds of injured civilians. The crackdown has left communities in fear, and social media accounts detail ongoing incidents of violence in major cities and rural areas alike.

Opposition Crackdown and Treason Charges

Security forces have arrested senior Chadema leader Amani Golugwa, along with several party officials. Warrants have been issued for dozens more involved in post-election demonstrations.

At least 145 individuals face treason charges, accused of plotting to obstruct the electoral process. Analysts say the government’s actions appear designed to paralyze the opposition and limit political competition. Opposition members claim the arrests violate constitutional rights, while civil society groups have condemned what they call “selective persecution.”

Disputed Victory and Authoritarian Concerns

President Samia Suluhu Hassan reportedly secured 97–98 percent of the vote. Observers have widely disputed the results, noting irregularities and restrictions on campaigning. Security forces deployed heavily to suppress dissent, while civil society activists faced intimidation and arrest.

Analysts suggest the election reflects a broader authoritarian shift. By restricting opposition activity and controlling public discourse, the government risks undermining trust in democratic institutions. The crackdown has drawn attention from regional bodies concerned with election fairness and transparency.

Global Attention and Economic Risks

The African Union and the United Nations have urged independent investigations into the killings. Analysts warn political instability could deter foreign investment, hinder development programs, and disrupt regional trade.

Economists emphasize that investor confidence depends on transparency and stability. With Tanzania facing scrutiny over human rights, donors may reconsider aid and multilateral programs, potentially affecting projects in infrastructure, health, and education.

Legal Criticism and Rule-of-Law Challenges

Treason indictments have sparked criticism. Boniface Mwabukusi of the Tanganyika Law Society called the charges “a mockery of justice.” Opposition leaders assert the arrests aim to suppress dissent and restrict political competition.

Civil society groups continue documenting human rights violations. Security forces’ use of excessive force has drawn condemnation from church leaders and community organizations. Analysts say that such measures could deepen societal divisions and risk further escalation if unaddressed.

Regional Implications

Observers note that the crackdown carries broader consequences for East Africa. Neighboring countries are watching closely, as Tanzania’s approach may influence political norms in the region. Trade and cross-border investment could be affected if the crisis undermines confidence in governance and stability.

The government’s response also sends a signal to multinational investors monitoring the East African market. A perception of unpredictability and authoritarianism may deter foreign capital, affecting sectors such as energy, manufacturing, and tourism.

Calls for Dialogue and Accountability

Despite the crisis, some officials are advocating for dialogue and reconciliation. Archbishop Ruwa’ichi stressed, “There can be no peace without justice.” Analysts say transparency in reporting casualties, independent investigations, and meaningful engagement with opposition leaders are essential to prevent further unrest.

Political commentators argue that Tanzania has a narrow window to restore credibility. The coming weeks will determine whether reforms are implemented or repression becomes entrenched. International and domestic scrutiny will be key in shaping the country’s democratic trajectory.

Bottom Line

The post-election crackdown in Tanzania is more than a domestic issue; it is a global concern. How the government handles human rights allegations, manages dissent, and restores public trust will define its credibility. Investors, policymakers, and citizens alike are watching closely. The events following the October 29 election serve as a litmus test for governance, institutional integrity, and democratic resilience in Tanzania.

DRC and Rwanda initial US-backed economic deal to boost trade, infrastructure, and mineral investment in the Great Lakes region

Washington D.C., 7 November 2025 – The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda have signed a U.S.-backed economic cooperation framework, aiming to boost trade, infrastructure, and mineral development in the Great Lakes region. The deal, reported by Bloomberg, marks a major step in implementing the 2025 peace agreement between the two countries.

The framework outlines cooperation in mining, transport, energy, trade, healthcare, and environmental conservation. It also sets rules for resource management, aiming to prevent disputes that have plagued the eastern DRC in the past.

“This is a critical step for regional stability and economic growth,” a senior U.S. official said, highlighting the international community’s support.

What the Deal Covers

The pact focuses on several areas:

• Minerals: DRC’s rich reserves of cobalt, copper, lithium, and gold will be developed with transparency, opening opportunities for international investors.
• Infrastructure: Projects include the Ruzizi III Hydropower Project and new cross-border transport corridors to improve trade links.
• Trade and Business: The agreement aims to simplify customs and create economic zones along the border.
• Environment and Health: Both countries plan joint initiatives in public health and conservation.

Why It Matters

The timing of the agreement is significant. Years of conflict in eastern DRC, involving the M23 rebel group, have destabilized the region and affected trade and investment. (AP News) By focusing on development rather than just security, the pact signals a new approach to peace: using economic cooperation to strengthen stability.

Globally, the deal is important because:

• It opens African investment opportunities in minerals, energy, and infrastructure.
• It secures supply chains for critical minerals used in electric vehicles and batteries.
• It provides a model of peace through economic integration, relevant to other conflict-prone regions.

Challenges Ahead

Despite the optimism, obstacles remain:

• Security: Withdrawal of foreign troops from eastern DRC is still incomplete.
• Community trust: Local populations remain cautious after previous agreements failed to deliver results.
• Governance: Ensuring minerals benefit local communities rather than elites is essential.
• Geopolitical risks: Global interest in DRC’s resources makes the region sensitive to shifting international priorities.

Next Steps

The draft framework is expected to be finalized in the coming weeks. Implementation will include infrastructure development, mineral-sector reforms, and expanded trade initiatives. International investors and development agencies are watching closely, looking for stability and clear regulations to guide investments.

“This deal could change the trajectory of the Great Lakes region,” said an analyst tracking African economic development. “It’s a signal that diplomacy, trade, and investment can work hand-in-hand to secure peace and growth.”

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front accuses Ethiopia’s federal forces of a drone strike that breaches the 2022 peace deal.

ADDIS ABABA, Nov. 8 – The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has accused Ethiopia’s federal government of carrying out a drone strike near the Tigray-Afar border, reigniting tensions less than three years after both sides signed a peace deal to end the country’s devastating civil war.

The drone attack, which reportedly took place on November 7, killed at least five people and injured several others, according to local sources cited by The Eastleigh Voice News. The TPLF, in a letter addressed to the African Union (AU) and the United Nations, said the incident “constitutes a clear violation of the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement.”

The Ethiopian government has not publicly commented on the allegations. Officials in Addis Ababa have in the past denied launching airstrikes in the northern regions, often dismissing such claims as “propaganda aimed at derailing peace.”

Warning of Escalation

In the letter, TPLF spokesperson Getachew Reda warned that continued military operations “will leave Tigray’s leadership with no option but to defend our people.” He said the strike represents “a dangerous slide back into open confrontation,” according to Ethiopia Observer.

“This attack breaches both the letter and the spirit of the Pretoria agreement,” Reda wrote. “If such provocations persist, they will destroy the fragile trust we have worked hard to rebuild.”

Independent verification of the drone strike remains difficult due to restricted access to the affected areas. Humanitarian workers say the incident occurred near Abala, a town on the Tigray-Afar frontier that saw heavy fighting during the two-year civil war.

According to analysts quoted by The Soufan Center, the renewed accusations risk reigniting conflict in a region still recovering from famine, displacement, and infrastructure collapse.

A Fragile Peace

The Pretoria peace accord, brokered in November 2022 under the auspices of the African Union, formally ended hostilities between the TPLF and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s federal government. The deal led to a cessation of fighting, restoration of humanitarian aid, and partial reintegration of Tigray into the national framework.

However, tensions have persisted over the disarmament process, the status of Western Tigray, and the return of internally displaced people.

“Peace in Tigray was never absolute—it was conditional and deeply political,” said William Davison, an analyst at the International Crisis Group. “Each flare-up exposes how fragile that peace remains.”

In recent months, both sides have accused each other of undermining the agreement. The TPLF has claimed federal troops remain deployed in violation of withdrawal commitments, while federal authorities say the TPLF has delayed full disarmament of its forces.

Humanitarian Concerns

The alleged drone strike comes as aid agencies warn of growing humanitarian needs in northern Ethiopia. Nearly four million people remain food-insecure, and more than one million are still displaced, according to the World Food Programme (WFP).

A senior humanitarian official based in Mekelle told Reuters that renewed fighting “would be catastrophic.” He added that “any escalation would immediately disrupt aid corridors and could push communities already on the brink into famine again.”

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said it is “monitoring reports of security incidents” in Tigray and Afar.

Regional Repercussions

Ethiopia’s stability is critical to the wider Horn of Africa, where regional conflicts in Sudan and Somalia have already strained humanitarian resources and cross-border trade.

Experts say another flare-up in Tigray could derail Ethiopia’s economic recovery and undermine investor confidence, particularly in energy and infrastructure projects.

“If violence resumes, it would rattle markets and reverse the modest gains Ethiopia has achieved since the 2022 truce,” said Abdul Mohammed, a Horn of Africa security analyst based in Nairobi.

The African Union and United States have urged both sides to exercise restraint and recommit to dialogue. In a statement, the AU Commission Chair Moussa Faki Mahamat called the situation “deeply concerning” and urged “immediate steps to prevent a relapse into hostilities.”

What’s Next

As of Friday, there were no confirmed reports of troop movements. But residents near Abala said federal patrols had intensified since the alleged strike.

The TPLF has demanded an international investigation and called on the African Union Monitoring and Verification Mission to access the site. Diplomatic sources in Addis Ababa said AU officials are seeking clarification from both parties before issuing a formal statement.

Analysts at The Soufan Center warn that even isolated incidents risk unraveling the broader peace process. “Without transparency and accountability, mistrust will deepen,” the center noted in a briefing.

For Ethiopia, the stakes are high. The fragile calm that followed the 2022 peace accord is now under pressure from renewed accusations, regional instability, and economic strain.