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Uganda Recalibrates Nile Basin Diplomacy

Uganda’s diplomatic campaign to reshape Nile Basin cooperation took a major step in December 2024, when it signed a joint declaration with Egypt on shared water management goals.

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Uganda is reshaping the Nile Basin Initiative to balance Egypt-Ethiopia tensions through diplomacy, regional summits, and strategic bilateral agreements.
In April 2025, Uganda ramped up diplomatic efforts as chair of the Nile Council of Ministers, pushing for a June summit to unite riparian states around the Cooperative Framework Agreement.

Uganda is reshaping the Nile Basin Initiative to balance Egypt-Ethiopia tensions through diplomacy, regional summits, and strategic bilateral agreements.

Takes Lead in Redefining Nile Basin Talks

Uganda is stepping up its regional diplomacy to reshape the future of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), amid growing tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). With Uganda holding the rotating chairmanship of the Nile Council of Ministers, Kampala is positioning itself as a broker of regional consensus and long-term cooperation in managing the Nile’s waters.

December 2024: Uganda and Egypt Sign Strategic Declaration

Uganda’s renewed diplomatic push began on December 4, 2024, when President Yoweri Museveni hosted Egyptian officials for bilateral talks in Kampala. This engagement led to the signing of a joint declaration between Egypt and Uganda, aiming to promote water security and ensure regular consultations over the Nile’s management.

The agreement also addressed rising tensions over the Entebbe Agreement, a 2010 treaty signed by upstream countries like Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda, and Ethiopia to redistribute Nile water rights more equitably. Egypt and Sudan, who traditionally received the lion’s share of the Nile waters under colonial-era treaties, have long opposed the Entebbe pact.

The joint declaration emphasized cooperation in key sectors like agriculture, hydropower, and security, with further consultations scheduled for early 2025. This marked a significant thawing of relations and a potential reset in Uganda-Egypt water diplomacy.

Read more on the Entebbe Agreement

February 2025: Uganda Advances Consultative Dialogue

In February 2025, Egypt’s Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Hani Sewilam, welcomed Uganda’s call for a wider consultative process involving seven Nile Basin countries. These include Burundi, DR Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, and Tanzania.

The purpose: to build consensus around the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) and determine how Nile waters can be shared more equitably, while reducing the risk of conflict over water scarcity and mega-dam projects like GERD.

Learn more about the Cooperative Framework Agreement

April 2025: Uganda Seeks a Game-Changing Summit

By April 2025, Uganda’s diplomatic efforts had gained momentum. As chair of the Nile Council of Ministers, Foreign Minister General Odongo Jeje Abubakhar announced Kampala’s intention to convene a Nile Basin Summit in June 2025.

The summit aims to bring together all CFA signatories and holdout states for a high-level dialogue. The focus will be on clarifying legal obligations, water quotas, and future infrastructure projects that impact transboundary river flows.

“This summit will be historic,” said General Odongo. “We need to reframe Nile water management in a way that is inclusive, forward-looking, and based on shared prosperity.”

Profile: General Odongo Jeje Abubakhar

Bridging the GERD Divide: Uganda as a Mediator

At the center of Uganda’s diplomatic calculus is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a $4.6 billion hydropower project on the Blue Nile that Ethiopia views as essential for its energy independence and regional development. However, Egypt, which depends on the Nile for over 90% of its freshwater needs, sees GERD as an existential threat.

By remaining neutral and emphasizing regional cooperation, Uganda has carved out a unique role as a trusted mediator. Kampala is urging both Addis Ababa and Cairo to resume trilateral negotiations while also advocating for basin-wide legal frameworks that include equitable benefit-sharing.

Background on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

June 2025 Summit: A Turning Point for the NBI?

With plans underway for the Nile Basin Summit in June 2025, Uganda hopes to shift the region from confrontation to cooperation. Analysts say the summit could redefine how upstream and downstream nations engage with one another over shared water resources.

Key summit objectives include:

  • Reviewing and updating the Cooperative Framework Agreement
  • Establishing transparent water allocation mechanisms
  • Launching a shared data exchange platform on water usage and rainfall
  • Enhancing climate resilience planning across the basin

If successful, the summit could also encourage Sudan to rejoin NBI negotiations and serve as a blueprint for similar cooperation in other transboundary river systems across Africa.

Visit the Nile Basin Initiative official website

Strategic Implications for Africa and Beyond

Uganda’s leadership comes at a critical moment when climate change, population growth, and infrastructure development are putting unprecedented pressure on water resources. By advocating for shared river governance, Uganda is also improving its diplomatic standing and building stronger ties with both Arab North Africa and Sub-Saharan nations.

International actors, including the United Nations, World Bank, and African Union, have praised Uganda’s inclusive approach and pledged technical support for the upcoming summit. Regional powers like Kenya, Tanzania, and Rwanda have also welcomed the initiative.

Explore how climate change is affecting Nile Basin flows

Conclusion: Uganda’s Watershed Moment

As Uganda intensifies its campaign to redefine Nile cooperation, the stakes could not be higher. The June 2025 summit, if successful, will be seen as a watershed moment for regional diplomacy and sustainable water governance in Africa.

Uganda’s message is clear: shared rivers require shared responsibility. And in a world where water is the new oil, Kampala is proving that diplomacy may be the most valuable resource of all.

See related story: Ethiopia’s Sovereign Wealth Fund Rises to $45B Read more: Rwanda-DRC Crisis and Regional Power Shifts Explore: U.S.-led DRC-Rwanda Peace Talks

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Renewable Energy & Access

Kenya Court Halts $2B Lamu Coal Project

The 1,050MW Lamu coal plant faced a decade of opposition from environmental groups and UNESCO advocates. The verdict now strengthens Kenya’s clean energy transition.

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Kenya’s High Court has halted a $2 billion coal plant in Lamu County, marking a landmark environmental and heritage ruling. The case reinforces citizens’ right to a clean and healthy environment.
The Lamu judgment underscores Kenya’s reputation as a renewable energy leader. It sends a clear signal that economic growth must align with environmental stewardship.

Kenya’s High Court halts a $2 billion Lamu coal plant near a UNESCO site, citing environmental and heritage violations.

NAIROBI, Oct. 17 — Kenya’s High Court has blocked construction of the proposed $2 billion Lamu coal plant, citing serious environmental and social concerns. The ruling delivered virtually from Malindi by Justice Francis Mwangi Njoroge on October 16, 2025, is a major victory for activists and local residents who have fought the project for years.

The 1,050-megawatt facility, planned for Kenya’s historic Lamu County, where al-Shabaab militants are threatening a $ 25 billion Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia -Transport (LAPSSET) corridor project,was to be the country’s first coal-powered station. However, the court found that the developers failed to conduct proper public participation and environmental assessments before securing government approvals.

“The approval process lacked meaningful engagement with affected communities,” Justice Njoroge said. “The constitutional right to a clean and healthy environment must take precedence over economic ambition.”


A Decade of Controversy

The project was led by Amu Power Company Ltd, a consortium majority-owned by Centum Investment Co. Plc — one of Kenya’s largest investment firms. Other key partners included Gulf Energy Ltd and China Power Global, which was expected to handle engineering and construction under the $2 billion deal.

Since its inception in 2015, the Lamu coal plant has faced intense opposition. Local fishermen, conservationists, and global environmental organizations such as Greenpeace Africa and Natural Justice warned that the plant would damage marine ecosystems and pollute air quality. The site lies close to Lamu Old Town — a UNESCO World Heritage Site — which risked losing its protected status if construction went ahead.

In 2019, the National Environment Tribunal (NET) suspended the plant’s environmental license, ruling that the environmental review had been flawed. Amu Power appealed the decision, but the project stalled as government policy began shifting toward cleaner energy sources.


Kenya’s Energy Shift

Kenya’s energy mix has changed dramatically over the past decade. As of 2024, Kenya Power reports that 86% of electricity comes from renewable sources such as geothermal, hydro, wind, and solar.

The Lamu coal project was originally conceived to provide cheap, reliable energy for industrial users. Yet falling renewable costs and international climate pressure have made coal both economically and politically unviable.

“Coal no longer fits Kenya’s green growth agenda,” said Joseph Njoroge, former Principal Secretary for Energy. “The economics simply don’t add up, and the environmental cost is too high.”

In 2022, the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum reaffirmed Kenya’s commitment to 100% clean energy by 2030, aligning with the Paris Agreement and national Vision 2030 goals.


Impact on Investors and Communities

The court’s ruling carries deep implications for both investors and local livelihoods. Centum’s subsidiary, Amu Power, had already invested around KSh 3.2 billion ($21 million) in feasibility studies, design work, and land acquisition.

A company spokesperson said Amu Power was “reviewing the judgment and considering its legal options.”

For Lamu residents, however, the decision was cause for celebration.

“This is not just a win for Lamu—it’s a win for all Kenyans who believe development must respect people and planet,” said Omar Elmawi, coordinator of the DeCOALonize Coalition, which led local resistance efforts.

Human rights groups, including Amnesty International Kenya and the Kenya Human Rights Commission, welcomed the verdict, urging the government to compensate families affected by earlier land acquisitions. They also called for the redirection of public investment toward renewable infrastructure in coastal Kenya.


A Turning Point for Green Governance

Experts believe the Kenya court ruling could reshape how African countries balance industrialization with environmental responsibility.

“Kenya’s courts are increasingly defining the country’s sustainable development trajectory,” said Dr. Wanjira Mathai, Managing Director for Africa at the World Resources Institute. “This judgment shows that rule of law and green growth can advance together.”

The High Court decision effectively voids the Lamu plant’s environmental license. Any attempt to revive the project would require a fresh environmental review and new public consultations — a process expected to take years.

For now, the ruling positions Kenya as a continental leader in renewable energy governance. It also signals to international investors that environmental accountability is no longer optional in Africa’s infrastructure landscape.


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Climate, Energy & Environment

U.S. Backs 1-Year AGOA Extension Amid Trade Strains

The Trump administration’s tariff hikes have eroded AGOA’s benefits. A short-term extension may not be enough to restore African confidence.

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AGOA’s future hangs in the balance as Washington debates renewal. African exporters warn that delays could trigger job losses across the continent.
South Africa, Kenya, and Lesotho are lobbying hard for AGOA’s renewal. The pact has supported jobs but now faces its toughest political test yet.

U.S. supports a 1-year AGOA extension; African exporters may suffer amid tariffs and tight deadlines for renewal.

A senior White House official confirmed that the Trump administration supports a one-year extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which is set to expire at the end of the month. While the move offers some reassurance to African exporters, significant uncertainty remains over whether Congress will act in time.

Trade flows underscore the stakes

U.S. trade with Africa has been rising: in 2024, total goods trade reached roughly $72 billion, with exports to Africa at $32.4 billion and imports at $39.6 billion, according to the U.S. Trade Representative’s office. The trade deficit stood at about $7.2 billion.

Under AGOA specifically, U.S. imports from beneficiary countries dropped to about $8 billion in 2024, down from $9.3 billion in 2023, according to a Congressional Research Service note. In 2023, imports under AGOA totaled nearly $9.7 billion, led by crude oil ($4.2 billion), apparel ($1.1 billion) and agricultural products, data from the Center for Global Development shows.

These figures illustrate how much is now at risk if AGOA were allowed to lapse.

Background: a pact under pressure

First enacted in 2000 under President Bill Clinton, AGOA grants eligible sub-Saharan African countries duty-free access to the U.S. market across many product lines. Over the decades, it has become a primary vehicle of U.S.–Africa economic engagement.

However, that preferential access has been eroded by the Trump administration’s unilateral tariffs—ranging from 10 percent to 30 percent—on several African exports. These measures have muted AGOA’s advantages, creating distrust among beneficiary nations.

Supporters argue AGOA has sustained hundreds of thousands of jobs in over 30 countries and served as a counterbalance to China’s rising presence in Africa.

Renewal prospects and obstacles

Despite White House backing, the window for Congress to renew AGOA is narrow. Leaders anticipate its extension may need to ride on a stopgap funding bill, a common legislative strategy for time-sensitive measures.

Still, internal divisions complicate that path. Some U.S. lawmakers question AGOA’s long-term efficacy and fairness, especially in a climate where tariffs have distorted the original benefits.

From the African side, pressure is intensifying. Delegations from Kenya, Lesotho, South Africa and others have urgently lobbied lawmakers and trade officials to act. Lesotho’s trade minister warned that delays could cost garment sector jobs.

South Africa’s trade minister, Parks Tau, voiced cautious optimism, noting bipartisan support in Congress but suggesting any extension is likely to be short (one to three years) to allow for later reforms. Tau is also in talks with U.S. officials over tariff relief on South African exports hit by 30 percent duties.

Consequences of lapse

If AGOA expires—even temporarily—analysts forecast sharp harm to sectors such as apparel, metals, chemicals, and agriculture. The International Trade Centre estimates Lesotho’s clothing exports could fall by nearly 29 percent, while South Africa’s car exports might shrink 23 percent by 2029.

Countries like Kenya, Tanzania, Madagascar, and Eswatini are also seen as particularly vulnerable. Some firms already say they are cancelling U.S. orders or pivoting to alternative supply chains, according to Business of Fashion.

Beyond the economic toll, a lapse in AGOA would represent a diplomatic setback for the U.S. in Africa—particularly as China and others deepen their trade and investment presence across the continent.

The road ahead

A multiyear renewal seems unlikely in the short term. A one-year extension is the most politically feasible option under current constraints. Still, such a stopgap would not fully restore trust or correct structural distortions caused by recent tariffs.

Which way Congress leans—and whether it can build bipartisan momentum quickly—will determine whether AGOA endures, is reshaped, or quietly disappears. Time is ticking.

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Renewable Energy & Access

Ethiopia Signs Nuclear Energy Agreement with Russia to Develop Power Plant

If completed, Ethiopia will become the second sub-Saharan African nation with nuclear power. Experts say the Ethiopia-Russia deal could serve as a model for Africa’s clean energy transition.

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On September 25, Ethiopia and Russia signed a historic nuclear energy deal in Moscow. The project will diversify Ethiopia’s energy mix and train local personnel in nuclear operations.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed observe as Rosatom CEO Aleksei Likhachev and Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos exchange documents during the nuclear energy agreement signing in Moscow on September 25, 2025.

On September 25, Ethiopia signed a nuclear energy deal with Russia in Moscow, aiming to diversify power sources, build local expertise, and boost regional energy security.

Ethiopia Signs Landmark Nuclear Energy Deal with Russia to Diversify Power Sources

Ethiopia took a historic step on September 25, 2025, by signing a nuclear energy cooperation agreement with Russia in Moscow. The deal, formalized during a nuclear energy forum, involves the construction of a nuclear power plant in Ethiopia and represents a major leap in the country’s energy strategy. Ethiopian Electric Power CEO Ashebir Balcha and Rosatom CEO Aleksei Likhachev signed the comprehensive action plan, highlighting the nations’ commitment to collaboration in energy technology and infrastructure.

Strategic Significance for Ethiopia

The agreement outlines a roadmap for building the nuclear facility, covering technical planning, financing, and the creation of a Nuclear Science and Technology Center in Ethiopia. The deal also includes training Ethiopian personnel in nuclear operations to develop domestic expertise. For Ethiopia, this project marks a critical step toward diversifying its energy mix beyond hydropower, solar, and wind.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed emphasized the importance of the initiative: “Nuclear technology provides reliable, low-emission power, strengthens food security, optimizes water management, and empowers our scientists.” He added that Ethiopia’s rapidly growing economy and population of over 130 million demand a diversified energy portfolio. Current investments, including the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), are not sufficient to meet future energy needs.

The Deal’s Scope and Capacity Building

Under the agreement, Rosatom will assist Ethiopia in constructing the nuclear power plant while building local technical capacity. Ethiopian engineers and technicians will receive specialized training in nuclear science, safety protocols, and operations. This ensures that the project does not only generate power but also strengthens Ethiopia’s scientific and technological base.

Ashebir Balcha, CEO of Ethiopian Electric Power, said: “This nuclear facility is more than energy generation; it’s about building knowledge, capacity, and innovation for Ethiopia’s future.” The initiative positions Ethiopia to emerge as a regional hub for advanced energy technology.

Regional and Continental Implications

If completed, Ethiopia would become only the second sub-Saharan African country after South Africa to operate a nuclear power plant. This milestone would demonstrate Africa’s capacity to adopt advanced, low-carbon energy solutions and could serve as a blueprint for other nations facing surging energy demand.

For example, this May, neighbouring Kenya signed a $1b renewable energy deal positioning itself as Africa’s green leader.

Energy analysts highlight that Ethiopia’s growing population, urbanization, and industrialization require a resilient energy system. According to the World Bank, electricity demand in Ethiopia is projected to double over the next decade. Nuclear energy, with high reliability and low greenhouse gas emissions, offers a sustainable solution to meet this demand.

The development also has broader geopolitical implications. By partnering with Russia, Ethiopia strengthens strategic ties while signaling its intention to diversify energy sources and reduce dependence on a single energy type. The project enhances regional energy security, providing a potential model for neighboring countries in East Africa.

Risks and Challenges

Despite the promise, nuclear energy projects are complex, expensive, and politically sensitive. Ensuring safe operations, adhering to international safety standards, and securing consistent funding are critical for the project’s success. Ethiopia must also manage public perception and regional concerns over nuclear proliferation, while demonstrating transparency and regulatory compliance.

A Vision for Sustainable Energy

The Ethiopia-Russia nuclear partnership represents a forward-looking approach to energy security. Combined with hydropower, solar, and wind, nuclear energy will contribute to a diversified, sustainable power system capable of supporting economic growth, innovation, and social development.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed stressed: “The nuclear deal is a strategic investment in our nation’s human capital, technological capacity, and future prosperity.” By integrating nuclear power, Ethiopia sets a precedent for the continent, showing that African nations can safely and effectively adopt advanced energy solutions to meet rising demand.

Explore further: Rosatom | Ethiopian Electric Power | Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam | South Africa Nuclear Program

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