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Safaricom Beats FY2025 Forecast on M-Pesa Gains

Safaricom eyes the future with bold bets — from doubling Ethiopia’s tower network to launching an AI-powered chatbot — but analysts say the path is lined with risk.
“It’s a high-risk, high-reward trajectory,” says Faith Njagi of IBIS Capital. “Few African firms are better positioned to pull it off.”

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Safaricom CEO Peter Ndegwa at the company’s Westlands headquarters on May 9, 2025, after announcing full-year EBIT of Ksh104.1 billion ($807M) — beating guidance despite currency headwinds and high-stakes expansion into Ethiopia. “We’re a tech-driven platform company building the rails of the digital economy,” Ndegwa said, as the telco doubles down on mobile money, cloud services, and regional growth.

Safaricom reports FY EBIT of Ksh104.1B ($807M), beating guidance. Ethiopia expansion grows despite currency, security hurdles.

Nairobi, Kenya | May 9, 2025Safaricom Plc, Kenya’s largest telecommunications firm, outperformed expectations with earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) rising to KSh104.1 billion ($807 million) for the year ending March 2025. The result beat the company’s projected range of KSh94–100 billion ($729–775 million) and confirmed its resilience amid regional and regulatory headwinds.

“We’ve outperformed on the core business while navigating a complex expansion,”
Peter Ndegwa, CEO, Safaricom Plc


Earnings Beat Despite Expansion Costs

Safaricom had earlier lowered expectations in November 2024, citing:

  • Soaring spectrum fees in Kenya
  • Heavy infrastructure investment in Ethiopia

But the strong performance of M-Pesa—which now powers over 40% of Safaricom’s service revenue—helped counter a slowdown in voice and SMS.

The company now projects full-year revenue to exceed KSh350 billion ($2.7 billion), internal sources revealed.


Ethiopia: Big Market, Big Headaches

Safaricom’s bold Ethiopia bet, launched in October 2022, continues to be a financial strain and a growth engine. As of March 2025:

  • 9+ million subscribers have joined
  • Full M-Pesa Ethiopia rollout is imminent, after a greenlight from the National Bank of Ethiopia in late 2024

Yet, challenges persist:

  • The Ethiopian birr has dropped 30% in two years
  • High inflation and patchy infrastructure hinder margin growth
  • Political and security risks remain acute

“It’s the most ambitious expansion in our corporate history,”
Michael Joseph, Founding CEO & Board Member

Despite the challenges, Safaricom sees Ethiopia as a long-term value driver, not just a cost center.


Kenya Remains the Revenue Fortress

Back home, M-Pesa is evolving beyond payments into:

Other strong growth verticals:

  • Home Fibre internet, competing directly with ISPs
  • Enterprise cloud solutions for public and private sector clients

“We are not just a telco anymore. We’re a tech-driven platform company,”
Peter Ndegwa, CEO


Shareholding Structure & Market Reaction

Safaricom is jointly owned by:

📈 Following the earnings announcement, Safaricom shares rose 2.8%, outperforming the NSE 20 Share Index.


Outlook: A Tech Platform in Transition

Safaricom’s FY2025 results show a company in active transformation. New initiatives include:

  • Doubling its tower count in Ethiopia
  • Launching AI-powered customer service by Q3
  • Expanding M-Pesa across regional markets

Still, analysts caution that high growth is now tied to high-volatility geographies.

“Safaricom’s fundamentals are solid, but the risk profile is evolving,”
Faith Njagi, Telecom Analyst, IBIS Capital


✅ Bottom Line

Safaricom has proven its mettle—beating forecasts while navigating Africa’s most complex telecom market. As the firm shifts from traditional telco to digital platform giant, Ethiopia will be its proving ground. The stakes are high—but so is the potential payoff.


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Fact-check: Ruto, Safaricom Share Sale Claims

Safaricom Ethiopia is still in its investment phase. Profitability is expected over the long term.

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Criticism of Safaricom’s valuation reflects political debate. No audit has confirmed state losses.

A fact-based review of claims linking President Ruto, Safaricom share sales, board appointments and Ethiopia expansion.

Fact-check: Ruto, Safaricom Share Sale Claims

NAIROBI — Claims linking President William Ruto, Safaricom Plc, and its shareholders have circulated widely in political debate.
However, the claims combine verifiable facts with political opinion and inference.

Accordingly, this article examines the assertions using public records, company filings and on-record statements.
Importantly, it does not allege wrongdoing.

Safaricom share sale and timing

Kenya sold 15 percent of Safaricom during the 2008 initial public offering.
At the time, the sale raised about KSh 51 billion ($320 million).

According to the prospectus filed with the Capital Markets Authority, the transaction is archived by the Nairobi Securities Exchange.

Later, in 2022, the government sold another 5 percent stake.
In that case, the shares were priced at KSh 15 each.

As a result, the sale raised KSh 48.5 billion ($305 million), according to the National Treasury.

Meanwhile, Safaricom entered Ethiopia after winning a telecoms licence in 2021.
The licence was awarded to a consortium led by Vodafone Group.

In total, the group committed more than $850 million in licence fees and rollout costs.
The figures appear in Safaricom investor filings and statements by the Ethiopian Communications Authority.

Crucially, Safaricom has said the Ethiopia project was funded through equity, loans and consortium contributions.
Therefore, it has not linked the investment to Kenya’s share sales.


Nyoro’s valuation criticism

Separately, former Budget Committee chair Ndindi Nyoro criticised Safaricom’s valuation in parliament.

“There is no way the government can purport to sell Safaricom at less than Sh2.5 trillion ($15.6 billion) other than if there is self-interest,” Nyoro said.

The remarks are recorded in the National Assembly Hansard.

Nonetheless, Nyoro’s comments reflect political opinion.
To date, no report by the Auditor-General or EACC has concluded the state lost Sh2.2 trillion ($13.7 billion).


Board appointment of Adil Khawaja

On governance, Safaricom appointed Adil Khawaja as a non-executive director in 2019.
Subsequently, he was elected chairman in January 2023.

According to Safaricom, the appointment followed shareholder approval.
The disclosures appear here.

In addition, Khawaja is a senior partner at Dentons Hamilton Harrison & Mathews.
The firm confirms this on its website here.


Law firm links and family association

Regarding family links, Dentons HHM has confirmed that Nick Ruto, the President’s son, trained there as a pupil advocate.
Afterwards, he moved on to other professional engagements.

However, legal experts note that pupillage does not confer control over corporate clients.
Nor does it provide board authority.


Vodafone ownership structure

By contrast, Safaricom’s ownership structure is clearly disclosed.

As of 2024:

  • Vodafone Group holds 35 percent
  • Government of Kenya holds 35 percent
  • Public investors hold about 30 percent

These figures, published in Safaricom’s 2024 annual report, contradict claims of majority control.


Ethiopia growth and profitability

Meanwhile, Safaricom Ethiopia has reported strong subscriber growth.
Even so, the unit remains loss-making.

According to the company, high capital costs and currency pressures persist.
The details appear in Safaricom financial results.

Similarly, analysts quoted by Reuters and Bloomberg describe Ethiopia as a long-term play.


IEBC data assertion

Finally, Safaricom provides network services to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission.
However, the IEBC says it controls its own electoral data.

The commission has outlined this position on its website here.


Conclusion

Overall, public records show that Safaricom’s share sales followed set procedures.
Likewise, board appointments were disclosed and approved.

As such, claims of impropriety remain political assertions.
They are not supported by audit findings or court rulings.


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Fintech & Mobile Money

Vodacom Gains Control of Safaricom

The Kenyan government will receive a multi-billion-shilling inflow after selling 15% of Safaricom shares
to Vodacom. The Vodacom Safaricom takeover
signals strong investor confidence in East Africa’s telecom and mobile money markets.

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Vodacom has secured majority control of Safaricom Plc in a deal valued at $2.4 billion. Analysts say the Vodacom Safaricom takeover could reshape Kenya’s telecom and fintech landscape.

Vodacom’s $2.4B Safaricom deal gives majority control, reshaping Kenya’s telecom and fintech sector with regional implications.

Vodacom Takes Control of Safaricom in $2.4 Billion Deal

South Africa’s Vodacom Group Ltd has acquired a controlling stake in Kenya’s largest telecom operator, Safaricom Plc. The deal is valued at about US$2.1 billion to $2.4 billion. It is one of the largest corporate transactions in East Africa this year.

Vodacom will buy 15% of Safaricom shares from the Kenyan government and an effective 5% from Vodafone International Holdings BV. This increases Vodacom’s stake from 35% to 55%, giving it majority control. Safaricom will remain listed on the Nairobi Securities Exchange. Public investors hold around 25%, and the government keeps 20%.


Strategic Implications for East Africa

The acquisition is part of Vodacom’s Vision 2030 strategy. Safaricom has over 38 million active customers and its mobile money platform, M-Pesa, processes millions of daily transactions.The takeover gives Vodacom direct access to East Africa’s fintech ecosystem.

Analysts expect Vodacom to expand M-Pesa and related services across the region. The move also strengthens Safaricom’s digital infrastructure. Investors see opportunities for innovation in mobile banking and e-commerce.

For the Kenyan government, selling a 15% stake brings a multi-billion-shilling inflow. The funds can support infrastructure and social programs. The partial divestment also helps reduce reliance on borrowing.


Market Reaction and Investor Outlook

Shares of Safaricom rose slightly after the announcement. The deal signals growing confidence from international investors in East Africa’s telecom and fintech sectors.

Regulatory approval is still required. Kenyan authorities are reviewing the transaction for antitrust and foreign ownership compliance. Vodacom has committed to maintaining Safaricom’s brand and retaining key local executives. (Techpoint Africa)


Regional Significance

The takeover shows a trend of international consolidation in East Africa. Safaricom’s M-Pesa has already changed how Kenyans access financial services. Vodacom’s majority ownership could speed up digital inclusion in Kenya and neighboring countries.

The deal may also encourage cross-border fintech expansion in Uganda, Tanzania, and Rwanda. Analysts expect growth in mobile banking, internet connectivity, and regional investment. Frontier-market telecoms remain attractive despite market volatility.


Looking Ahead

Vodacom’s control of Safaricom is expected to reshape East Africa’s telecom landscape. It may drive innovation, financial inclusion, and regional expansion. For Kenya, the government gains fiscal resources. Investors and public shareholders will watch management and strategy changes closely.

The acquisition reflects Africa’s evolving investment scene. Telecom and fintech platforms are increasingly key to economic transformation. They offer international investors attractive opportunities for long-term returns. (Bloomberg)

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Vodacom Eyes Bigger Stake in Safaricom

Safaricom’s expansion in Ethiopia, now surpassing 4.6 million users, makes it a strategic target for Vodacom. Increased ownership could accelerate regional remittances and digital infrastructure.

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Kenya’s regulators and the National Treasury will closely monitor any stake increase due to Safaricom’s market dominance. Investors see the talks as a vote of confidence in East Africa’s digital economy.

Vodacom is in talks to increase its stake in Safaricom, reshaping East Africa’s telecom landscape and deepening cross-border investment ties.

Vodacom’s Bid to Boost Safaricom Stake Adds Pressure on East Africa’s Telecom Market

Vodacom Group Ltd. is in talks to raise its stake in Safaricom Plc, marking a major shift in a telecom market moving toward consolidation. Cross‑border operators are racing to dominate mobile money and digital connectivity in East Africa. The South African carrier opened discussions to increase its holdings in the Nairobi‑listed company, according to Bloomberg.

The move signals growing investor confidence in Safaricom, even as Kenya’s macroeconomic conditions remain mixed. It also raises serious questions about the future ownership of one of East Africa’s most profitable telecom firms, central to the region’s digital economy.


A Strategic Grab for East Africa’s Crown Jewel

Safaricom remains highly profitable, thanks in part to its dominant mobile-money service, M-Pesa. In its latest reported half-year earnings, Safaricom highlighted strong data revenue, a growing enterprise business, and healthy cash flows from M-Pesa — underscoring why Vodacom may want more control.

Meanwhile, Safaricom is rapidly expanding in Ethiopia. Its local subsidiary recently reported crossing 4.6 million active users, a sign that its ambition in East Africa’s second most populous country is gaining traction.


Vodacom’s Regional Strategy

Vodacom already has a presence in South Africa, Tanzania, Mozambique, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Increasing its Safaricom stake would give it better integration with a key partner in markets where they already work together on M-Pesa infrastructure.

The deal could also strengthen Vodacom’s positioning for next‑generation services — like AI‑driven apps, digital lending, cloud services, and cross-border payments. As some governments push for mobile-money interoperability, a tighter link with Safaricom could enable unified digital rails in East Africa.


Regulatory and Ownership Implications in Kenya

Any deal will draw scrutiny from Kenya’s telecom and competition watchdogs: the Communications Authority of Kenya and the Competition Authority of Kenya. Safaricom has over 60% market share in Kenya, making this a sensitive transaction.

A larger Vodacom stake could raise concerns around pricing power, infrastructure-sharing, and dominance. Kenya’s National Treasury, which is a major Safaricom shareholder, will also likely weigh in on how this deal affects national control over a strategic telecom asset.


Impact on Foreign Capital Flows

If the talks culminate in a deal, it could inject fresh liquidity into the Nairobi Securities Exchange, which has struggled with low foreign investor participation. A Safaricom‑driven transaction could be a big boost for the local market.

For global investors, Vodacom’s move may be a signal of confidence in Kenya’s telecom and digital services growth — even if broader economic challenges persist.


Ripple Effects Across East Africa

A bigger Vodacom‑Safaricom tie-up could reshape competition in Tanzania and the DRC, where Vodacom also operates. With deeper integration, the two companies could scale mobile-money to cross-border corridors.

In Uganda and Rwanda, this could accelerate mobile‑money remittances and deepen financial integration as intra‑Africa trade grows.


Ethiopia: The High-Value Wild Card

Ethiopia represents a huge opportunity for Safaricom and Vodacom. With a population of over 120 million and increasing openness to financial liberalization, Ethiopia is a strategic growth market.

If Ethiopia permits large-scale mobile-money platforms, Vodacom’s pursuit of Safaricom becomes even more significant — the valuation upside could be large if M-Pesa scales there.


Looking Ahead

Vodacom’s bid to grow its stake in Safaricom adds a new dimension to the East African telecom space. Whether the deal goes through or stalls, it demonstrates how central Safaricom is to the region’s digital future.

If the talks succeed, the outcome could shape cross-border payment corridors, cloud infrastructure, and telecom consolidation — putting Nairobi, Addis Ababa, Dar es Salaam, Kampala, Kigali, and Kinshasa at the heart of a rapidly evolving tech network in East Africa.



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