Public Finance & Economic Development
Kenya FDI: Foreign Firms Plan Big Expansion
Nearly 57% of foreign-owned firms in Kenya plan to reinvest or expand over the next three years. Investors are committing at least KSh 100 million (~US$745,000) each, signaling strong confidence in Kenya’s business environment. Skilled labour, market access, and ongoing reforms remain key drivers of foreign investment.
Nearly 57% of foreign firms in Kenya plan major reinvestment, signaling confidence despite high costs and regulatory hurdles.
Foreign Investors Double Down on Kenya
Nearly 57% of foreign-owned businesses in Kenya are planning to reinvest or expand over the next three years—each committing at least KSh 100 million (~US$745,000)—according to the latest Foreign Investment Survey (FIS) by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), in partnership with the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) and KenInvest.
Snapshot of Investor Confidence
Conducted between November 2024 and February 2025, the survey captured responses from 968 enterprises—primarily in Nairobi—achieving a 77.6% response rate. Among these, 603 firms reported foreign assets or liabilities.
Investment intentions:
- 14% of firms plan to invest above KSh 1 billion (~US$7.45 m).
- 29.1% aim for KSh 101 m–1 billion (~US$752,400–7.45 m).
- In total, 56.9% will commit at least KSh 100 m (~US$745,000).
Over the next three years:
- 39.5% will reinvest or expand,
- 25% aim to diversify,
- 30.3% expect to maintain current operations,
- 3.9% foresee scaling down, and 1.4% plan to exit.
(Financial Times)
Rising Liabilities and Inflows
Kenya’s stock of foreign liabilities rose 42% in six years to KSh 2.34 trillion (~US$19.9 billion) in 2023, up from KSh 1.65 trillion (~US$14.1 billion) in 2018. A key driver was an 8.5% rise in FDI, worth KSh 199 billion (~US$1.7 billion).
Why Investors Choose Kenya
Among firms established since 2019:
- 22.9% cited skilled labour,
- 17.1% each pointed to market access and ease of doing business,
- 14.3% noted logistics advantages.
Other motivators included macroeconomic stability, technology and innovation, e-government services, and political stability.
High Costs Remain a Concern
Despite optimism, foreign firms flagged expensive enablers:
- Electricity supply (70.1%),
- Financial services (58.5%),
- Immigration services (55.8%),
- Business permits (51.8%).
Internet, water supply, construction, and environmental services were considered moderately costly.
Sources of Investment
- Europe: 35% of liabilities, led by the UK (46.4%) and Netherlands (17.3%).
- Africa: 26.4%, driven by inflows from South Africa, DRC, and Mauritius.
- Asia: 9.3%, with declines from India, UAE, and China.
- Americas: 9.1%, largely from the US, British Virgin Islands, and Canada.
Sectoral Focus
- Finance & insurance: 28.1% (KSh 409.7 billion / ~US$3.5 billion).
- Manufacturing: 14.8% (KSh 216.2 billion / ~US$1.84 billion).
- ICT: 8.1% (KSh 186.6 billion / ~US$1.59 billion).
- Wholesale & retail: slight dip to KSh 169.8 billion (~US$1.45 billion).
Investor Sentiment and Jobs
68% of foreign firms expressed confidence in Kenya’s business environment. Employment in foreign-owned firms rose 3.3% to 224,704 workers in 2023, with women making up 39.1% of the workforce, up from 37.8% in 2022.
The Road Ahead
While Kenya remains a magnet for foreign investment, challenges persist. High energy costs, regulatory bottlenecks, tax complexity, and corruption threaten competitiveness. Policymakers are urged to reform energy pricing, tax administration, and regulatory transparency to sustain investor momentum.
Public Finance & Economic Development
Centum Launches Kenya’s First Dollar-Denominated REIT
Through its Trific unit, Centum plans to roll out a pioneering REIT priced in US dollars — a first in Kenya’s investment history. The initiative aims to attract foreign investors while deepening confidence in Nairobi’s capital markets.
Centum plans Kenya’s first dollar-denominated REIT worth $37M, boosting foreign investor confidence and deepening the country’s real estate market.
Kenya’s Centum Unit to Launch Country’s First Dollar-Denominated REIT
Kenya’s capital markets are on the brink of a historic milestone as Centum Investment Company Plc prepares to introduce the country’s first dollar-denominated real estate investment trust (REIT). The move underscores a growing appetite among international investors for Kenyan real estate and signals the country’s gradual transition toward globally aligned capital-market products.
A Landmark Move by Centum
According to Bloomberg News, Centum’s subsidiary — Two Rivers International Finance & Innovation Centre (Trific) — plans to issue a US $37 million REIT denominated in US dollars before the end of 2025.
The product will be the first of its kind in Kenya, marking a new phase of diversification within the Nairobi capital market. Centum’s Group Chief Executive James Mworia said the dollar-priced REIT aims to attract both local and international investors seeking predictable returns and protection from local-currency depreciation.
The instrument is expected to deliver an 8 percent annual return and will require a minimum investment of US $1,000, making it accessible to a wide range of investors.
Why This REIT Matters for Kenya
The launch of a dollar-priced REIT is more than a financial innovation — it’s a statement about Kenya’s evolving capital market. For years, Kenya’s real estate and investment sectors have been dominated by shilling-denominated instruments, which often deter foreign investors due to currency-exchange risk.
By pricing in US dollars, Centum’s REIT offers a hedge against shilling depreciation and provides an opportunity for investors to earn stable, foreign-currency returns from local assets. This could help deepen investor confidence, enhance market liquidity, and broaden the pool of foreign capital flowing into Kenya.
The initiative also aligns with the Capital Markets Authority (CMA) reforms that aim to expand alternative investment products, such as REITs, to support Kenya’s Vision 2030 development goals.
Key Features of Centum’s Dollar-REIT
| Feature | Details |
|---|---|
| REIT Size | Approximately US $37 million |
| Minimum Subscription | US $1,000 |
| Expected Annual Return | 8 percent |
| Asset Base | Fully leased, USD-generating property under Trific |
| Regulatory Status | Awaiting approval from the Capital Markets Authority |
| Planned Launch | Before end of 2025 |
The REIT will acquire a fully leased, revenue-generating commercial property located within Two Rivers Development — one of East Africa’s largest mixed-use projects, owned by Centum.
Market and Regulatory Implications
The launch of this REIT represents a breakthrough for Kenya’s capital-market innovation. However, it must first secure regulatory approval from the CMA, which has historically exercised caution in licensing new investment products to protect investors.
Experts believe this product could open the door for other foreign-currency-denominated instruments, helping diversify the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) portfolio. In the long term, it could position Kenya as a preferred investment hub for East African property funds.
Still, challenges remain. Market analysts warn that property-valuation transparency, tenant creditworthiness, and macroeconomic headwinds — including inflation and high interest rates — could influence performance. Nevertheless, the REIT’s USD pricing significantly cushions investors from local-currency volatility.
Broader Economic Context
Kenya’s property market continues to attract institutional capital, thanks to rapid urbanization and rising demand for Grade-A commercial space. The country’s infrastructure development under projects such as Vision 2030’s Big Four Agenda and Nairobi’s affordable housing program has further boosted investor confidence.
According to data from Knight Frank Kenya, Nairobi remains one of Africa’s top destinations for high-yield commercial properties, with rental yields averaging 8 – 10 percent in prime zones. Centum’s dollar REIT is expected to capitalize on this demand while offering global investors an easy entry into Kenya’s real-estate market without direct currency exposure.
What It Means for Investors
For foreign investors, this REIT provides a stable entry point into an emerging market with high potential for real-asset growth. By earning returns in US dollars, investors mitigate the impact of local-currency depreciation — a major concern for global portfolios in frontier markets.
For local investors, the product encourages a new savings and investment culture that bridges domestic and global financial systems. As Centum sets the precedent, other developers may follow suit, introducing hybrid and offshore-linked instruments.
This will likely enhance transparency, improve reporting standards, and attract more institutional investors — such as pension funds and insurance companies — into Kenya’s real-estate sector.
A Step Toward Market Maturity
Kenya’s financial system has undergone steady reform since the 1990s, but REIT adoption has lagged due to low investor awareness and regulatory complexity. Centum’s initiative could shift perceptions by demonstrating how professionally managed, dollar-based instruments can deliver returns comparable to — or even surpassing — traditional real-estate projects.
As the Nairobi Securities Exchange seeks to boost listings and diversify revenue streams, such innovations could inject new vitality into Kenya’s investment landscape.
Conclusion
Centum Investment Company’s plan to introduce Kenya’s first dollar-denominated REIT marks a defining moment for the country’s capital markets. It reflects both confidence in Kenya’s economic fundamentals and a strategic move to align with international investment trends.
Once approved and launched, this US $37 million REIT could attract global investors seeking stable, dollar-linked returns in Africa’s most dynamic property market. More importantly, it signals Kenya’s readiness to compete in the international investment arena — one dollar at a time.
Public Finance & Economic Development
Kenya Private-Sector Growth Boosts Banks
Rising business activity is driving lending and trade-finance opportunities for Kenyan banks. SMEs are expected to lead the demand for working capital and supply-chain financing.
Kenya’s PMI rises to 52.5 in October 2025, driving lending, deposits, and digital banking opportunities for banks.
Nairobi, Kenya – Kenya’s private sector grew at its fastest pace since December 2021. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 52.5 in October 2025, up from 51.9 in September, when the private sector rebounded.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion. October’s figure reflects stronger demand, increased production, and improved business confidence.
“Output growth across Kenya’s private sector accelerated to its fastest pace in nearly four years in October,” said analysts at Stanbic Bank Kenya.
Banking Sector Implications
For banks, a stronger private sector can boost credit demand, deposit growth, and digital transactions.
Business Lending: Companies expanding production and inventory need working capital and loans. SMEs, which contribute over 30% of Kenya’s GDP, are expected to drive lending growth.
Trade Finance: Firms involved in import and export activity may increase demand for letters of credit, guarantees, and supply chain financing.
Deposits & Transactions: More business activity leads to higher deposits and transaction volumes, including digital payments and payroll processing.
Digital Banking: Kenya’s banks can expand online lending and payment solutions. Partnerships with fintech firms can help offer integrated digital services to SMEs.
Broader Economic Context
Rising private-sector activity signals stronger employment, higher incomes, and increased government revenue. Policymakers see this as a positive sign for Kenya’s business environment.
Banks that align products with government policies and SME support programs can strengthen their market position.
Risks & Opportunities
While growth is positive, banks should monitor credit quality, inflation, and operational risks. Innovative products tailored for SMEs, trade finance, and digital solutions will be crucial.
Bottom Line
Kenya’s private sector, as reflected in the October 2025 PMI of 52.5, is expanding rapidly. Banks have a window of opportunity to capture lending, deposit, trade-finance, and digital banking growth.
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Public Finance & Economic Development
Kenya Sets Q4 2025 Fringe Benefit Tax Rate at 8%
Kenya keeps the deemed interest rate steady at 8% despite recent CBK rate cuts. Businesses can now close their financial year with confidence.
Kenya Revenue Authority retains the fringe benefit and deemed interest tax rate at 8% for Q4 2025, reinforcing stability for employers.
NAIROBI, Oct. 26, 2025 — The Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) has maintained both the fringe benefit tax (FBT) market interest rate and the deemed interest rate at 8 percent for the final quarter of 2025. This decision, announced on October 21, underscores KRA’s commitment to providing predictability in tax administration amid recent monetary easing.
Employers must apply an 8% market interest rate when valuing fringe benefits such as staff loans and other non-cash perks. The 8% deemed interest rate also applies to employer or shareholder loans where no interest is charged. From these amounts, a 15% withholding tax must be deducted and paid to the Commissioner within five working days, according to Bloomberg Tax.
Steady Policy Despite Rate Cuts
The 8% rate remains unchanged even after the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) reduced the benchmark Central Bank Rate to 9.25% from 9.50% earlier this month. The move was intended to stimulate borrowing amid moderating inflation.
By keeping the FBT and deemed interest rates steady, KRA separates tax computation from short-term monetary fluctuations. This prioritizes predictability for employers and payroll systems. The Q4 rate covers October through December 2025 and serves as a reference for year-end tax planning.
Employer and Payroll Implications
Fringe benefit tax applies when employers provide non-cash benefits like low-interest loans, housing, or vehicles. Under Section 12B of the Income Tax Act, employers must compute taxable value using a prescribed market rate. Section 16(2)(ja) imposes a deemed interest charge on interest-free or below-market loans from foreign affiliates or related parties.
“The 8% benchmark provides continuity for businesses closing their financial year,” said a Nairobi-based tax consultant advising multinational firms. “Predictable reference rates help employers comply and avoid last-minute recalculations.”
Some experts warn that a fixed rate may not always reflect market conditions. If lending costs fall below 8%, the FBT may overstate taxable values. Conversely, if commercial lending rises, the rate may understate employees’ benefit costs.
The Legal Notice
KRA’s official notice states:
“For the purposes of Section 12B of the Income Tax Act, the Market Interest Rate is 8%. This rate shall apply for October, November, and December 2025. For the purposes of Section 16(2)(ja) of the Income Tax Act, the prescribed rate of interest is 8%. Withholding tax at 15% on the deemed interest shall be deducted and paid to the Commissioner within five working days.”
The language mirrors the previous quarter’s directive, showing KRA’s preference for consistent FBT and deemed interest rates.
Market Reaction
Industry bodies have welcomed the move. The Institute of Certified Public Accountants of Kenya (ICPAK) said the stable tax reference improves predictability for financial reporting. “A consistent rate enables employers to make reliable projections on payroll and tax obligations,” the institute noted.
Analysts caution that future adjustments may be necessary if interest rates diverge significantly. For now, the 8% benchmark is seen as a prudent choice, offering stable compliance for employers and multinational subsidiaries through year-end.
Compliance Checklist
Tax experts advise employers to:
- Update payroll and benefits systems to reflect the 8% rate for Q4 2025.
- Reassess employee loan portfolios to ensure correct FBT calculations.
- Remit withholding tax on deemed interest within five working days.
- Document compliance with KRA’s circular for audit readiness.
- Monitor new notices for Q1 2026 adjustments.
Maintaining the same rate for two consecutive quarters reduces mid-year recalculations and supports corporate financial stability.
Fiscal Context
The decision aligns with Kenya’s broader effort to strengthen domestic revenue and maintain fiscal stability under the Medium-Term Revenue Strategy. It also complements reforms aimed at simplifying compliance and broadening the tax base without sudden shocks to the private sector.
As 2025 winds down, tax consistency is becoming a key feature of the government’s fiscal agenda. With borrowing costs stabilizing and inflation easing, Kenya’s 8% fringe benefit benchmark offers certainty to employers, investors, and auditors alike.
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