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Kenya Seeks US Trade Deal by December, Backs 5-Year AGOA Extension

At the UN General Assembly, Ruto said a US-Kenya trade pact would strengthen investment and job creation. He stressed that extending AGOA is vital for African exporters.

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Kenya is racing to finalize a trade deal with the United States by December, President William Ruto announced in New York. He also urged Washington to extend the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) for five more years.
Kenya’s push for a US trade deal comes as AGOA’s expiry looms. Ruto warned that without renewal, African economies could lose billions in duty-free access to the American market.

President Ruto says Kenya aims to sign a US trade pact by December and is urging Washington to extend AGOA for five more years.

Kenya Eyes US Trade Deal and AGOA Renewal Amid UN Meetings

NEW YORK — Kenya is seeking to finalize a landmark bilateral trade agreement with the United States by the end of 2025, while simultaneously pressing Washington to extend the expiring African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) for at least five more years. President William Ruto made the announcement on September 24, 2025, during the United Nations General Assembly in New York. (Reuters)

AGOA, which provides duty-free access for African exports into the U.S., is set to expire this month, raising uncertainty for Kenya’s exporters of textiles, coffee, and agricultural goods.


Ruto’s Push in Washington

Ruto confirmed he would meet with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio later on Wednesday to discuss both the bilateral trade deal and AGOA’s renewal. He stressed that Kenya has made “good progress” in negotiations and expects a final agreement by December.

“We have made significant progress and are confident a deal can be signed before year end,” Ruto said in an interview. “At the same time, we are urging the U.S. to extend AGOA for at least five years to safeguard African economies.” (Reuters)


What AGOA Means for Kenya

Kenya exports over $700 million in goods to the United States annually, with apparel and textiles accounting for the bulk of the trade. Without AGOA, those exports would face tariffs as high as 10%, threatening jobs in the country’s garment industry.

The Kenya Association of Manufacturers has warned that any lapse in AGOA could result in thousands of job losses and reduced foreign exchange earnings.

According to the World Bank, AGOA has supported industrial growth across sub-Saharan Africa, but its expiration could significantly reduce the continent’s share of U.S. imports. (World Bank)


U.S. Politics Complicate Renewal

Despite Ruto’s optimism, AGOA’s extension is far from guaranteed. Congressional approval is required, and recent trade policy debates in Washington have leaned toward protectionism.

A bipartisan effort to renew AGOA in 2024 failed, with lawmakers divided over whether to extend or replace the pact. Analysts say Ruto’s push for a five-year extension is ambitious given the political climate.

“African countries are facing a U.S. Congress increasingly skeptical of broad trade deals,” said Amaka Anku, Africa director at Eurasia Group. “Kenya is trying to balance between securing a bilateral deal and protecting the broader African access provided by AGOA.”


African Manufacturers Lobbying Washington

Kenya is not alone in pressing for renewal. African manufacturers and trade associations launched a coordinated lobbying effort in Washington earlier this month, urging lawmakers to approve at least a temporary extension.

“Even a one- or two-year extension would be critical to protect ongoing contracts,” said a joint statement by industry leaders. (Reuters)

The Financial Times reported that without AGOA, African clothing exports to the U.S. could fall by as much as 29%, hitting economies in East Africa especially hard. (FT)


Why the Bilateral Deal Matters

If signed, the Kenya–U.S. trade agreement would be the first such pact between Washington and a sub-Saharan African nation. Observers say it would set a precedent for other African countries and potentially replace some of AGOA’s benefits with a more tailored framework.

Kenya’s Trade Minister, Rebecca Miano, has argued that a bilateral deal could cover new areas, including digital trade, investment in green energy, and agricultural standards.

“This would not only secure jobs in Kenya but also attract U.S. investment into sectors that AGOA does not fully address,” Miano said.


Global Implications

The outcome of Ruto’s talks could shape U.S.–Africa trade relations for the next decade. For Washington, striking a deal with Kenya could demonstrate commitment to African markets at a time when China is expanding its footprint on the continent.

For Nairobi, success would reassure investors worried about policy uncertainty. It could also support Ruto’s broader agenda of positioning Kenya as East Africa’s financial and logistics hub.


Next Steps

The High-stakes discussions continue this week in New York, with Ruto pushing for AGOA renewal while finalizing Kenya’s bilateral trade pact. Whether Congress acts in time remains uncertain, but the pressure from African governments and manufacturers is intensifying.

“Kenya cannot afford a trade gap,” Ruto said. “Our exporters need continuity, and our workers need protection.”

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Diageo to Sell EABL Stake to Asahi for $2.3bn

Japan’s Asahi is set to acquire control of EABL as Diageo exits direct ownership after more than five decades. The $2.3bn deal underscores rising Asian investment in African consumer markets.

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East African Breweries will come under Asahi’s control pending regulatory approvals in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. Diageo will retain a regional presence through long-term brand licensing agreements.

Diageo will sell its 65% stake in EABL to Japan’s Asahi for $2.3bn (Sh297bn), reshaping East Africa’s beer market.

NAIROBI / LONDON, Dec. 17 — British spirits maker Diagoo Plc. has agreed to sell its 65 percent controlling its 65 percent controlling stake in East African Breweries Ltd (EABL) to Japan’s Asahi Group Holdings in a transaction valued at about $2.3 billion (roughly Sh297 billion), a deal that will redraw ownership of one of East Africa’s most strategic consumer goods companies.

The transaction, announced on Tuesday, will see Diageo exit direct equity ownership of EABL after more than five decades, while retaining a commercial presence in the region through long-term brand and licensing arrangements. The deal is expected to close in the second half of 2026, subject to regulatory approvals across Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania.

Strategic reset for Diageo

Diageo said the disposal forms part of a broader strategy to simplify its portfolio, strengthen its balance sheet and focus capital on faster-growing premium spirits categories globally.

“This transaction delivers significant value for shareholders and further accelerates our commitment to deleveraging,” Diageo interim chief executive Nik Jhangiani said in a statement, adding that the sale is expected to reduce net debt leverage by around 0.25 times.

The London-listed group, which owns global brands including Johnnie Walker, Smirnoff and Guinness, said it will continue to participate in East African markets through licensing agreements covering Guinness and selected spirits and ready-to-drink products.

Analysts say the move reflects Diageo’s growing focus on capital discipline as global alcohol consumption slows in some mature markets amid inflationary pressures and changing consumer preferences.

Asahi’s Africa expansion

For Asahi, Japan’s largest brewer by revenue, the acquisition marks a decisive entry into sub-Saharan Africa, a region viewed by global beverage groups as a long-term growth frontier due to demographics, urbanisation and rising disposable incomes.

“Asahi sees EABL as a high-quality business with strong brands, leading market positions and deep roots in its communities,” Asahi president and CEO Atsushi Katsuki said, noting that the group intends to invest for sustainable, long-term growth.

Asahi said it plans to retain EABL’s existing listings on the Nairobi Securities Exchange, Uganda Securities Exchange and Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange, preserving local and regional investor participation.

A regional heavyweight

Founded in 1922, EABL dominates beer and spirits markets in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania through brands such as Tusker, Bell Lager, Serengeti and Pilsner, and operates major breweries in Nairobi, Kampala and Dar es Salaam.

For the financial year ended June 30, 2025, EABL reported net sales of $996 million, EBITDA of $258 million and net profit of $94 million, according to company filings. Net debt stood at approximately $229 million.

Deal analysts estimate the transaction values EABL at an enterprise value of about $4.8 billion, equivalent to roughly 17 times EBITDA, a multiple that reflects both its dominant market position and the scarcity value of scaled consumer businesses in East Africa.

Market reaction

Shares of Diageo rose modestly in early trading in London following the announcement, while EABL shares gained on the Nairobi bourse as investors welcomed clarity on the brewer’s long-term ownership.

“This is a clean exit for Diageo at an attractive valuation, while Asahi gains a rare platform in a high-growth region,” said a Nairobi-based equity analyst who follows consumer stocks.

Regulatory and political lens

The deal will undergo scrutiny from competition authorities in the three core EABL markets, where the brewer plays a major role in employment, tax revenues and agricultural supply chains, particularly barley and sorghum sourcing from smallholder farmers.

Kenya’s Treasury and trade officials are also expected to examine the transaction’s implications for local manufacturing and exports, given EABL’s status as one of the country’s largest listed companies and taxpayers.

A changing global drinks landscape

Diageo’s exit from EABL follows earlier divestments across Africa, including sales of breweries in Cameroon, Ghana and Ethiopia, as multinational drinks firms recalibrate portfolios in response to tighter capital markets and shifting consumption patterns.

At the same time, Asian groups such as Asahi, Kirin and Suntory have been stepping up overseas investments to offset slower growth at home.

What comes next

Once completed, the transaction will mark one of the largest cross-border acquisitions in East Africa’s consumer sector, potentially ushering in new investment, technology transfer and governance changes at EABL.

For now, investors and regulators will be watching closely to see how Asahi balances global ambitions with EABL’s deeply rooted local brands — and how Diageo’s strategic retreat reshapes its footprint on the African continent.

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Somalia Bourse Targets Kenya Listings

Investors say the cross-listing partnership with the Nairobi bourse could unlock long-term liquidity in the Horn of Africa. Regulators in Mogadishu expect listings to rise in 2026.

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The launch of the Somalia Securities Exchange signals growing confidence in the nation’s economic reforms. Its collaboration with Kenya’s capital markets will shape future investor flows.

Somalia’s new Securities Exchange targets Kenyan companies for cross-listing as Mogadishu pursues regional integration and deeper capital markets reforms.

New cross-listing pact aims to draw East African companies and Somali diaspora capital as NSES prepares for 2026 trading launch

Somalia’s new National Securities Exchange (NSES) is positioning itself as East Africa’s youngest investment hub after signing a cross-listing pact with the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) in late November 2025. The agreement gives the Mogadishu-based exchange a fast route into regional markets and strengthens Somalia’s push to convert its vast diaspora savings into formal investment.

NSES was launched on 19 June 2025 following years of planning by the Somali government, regulators and private-sector partners. It is Somalia’s first modern securities exchange since state collapse in 1991. The exchange is still building its regulatory systems and trading infrastructure, but the new partnership with Nairobi signals that Somalia intends to integrate quickly into East Africa’s capital-markets architecture.

The signing ceremony, reported by Business Daily Africa in a November 30 article, highlighted NSES’s intention to attract Kenyan companies as early anchor listings. The outlet noted that NSES is targeting big Kenyan firms for cross-listing as part of its early-stage strategy. The article is accessible via Business Daily’s markets section here.

NSES CEO Yasin M. Ibar told The EastAfrican that the exchange has already held discussions with four Kenyan companies operating across finance, logistics and real estate. His remarks were published in a detailed regional analysis by The EastAfrican, which reported that these companies are assessing opportunities to tap Somalia’s fast-growing business environment. That story is available here.

We have received interest from Kenyan listed companies for cross-listing,” Ibar said. “We expect about four companies to list on NSES once systems are fully operational.” His comments shed light on the early momentum behind a market that has yet to conduct its first trade.

A strategy built on credibility and speed

For Somalia, cross-listing is a shortcut to credibility. By aligning with Kenya’s NSE—one of Africa’s oldest bourses—NSES gains access to regulatory support, surveillance tools and market-development expertise. Kenya’s state news agency reported that the MoU covers technology transfer, market-surveillance frameworks, joint investor-education programmes, and co-development of Shariah-compliant products. That report is available through Kenya News.

The pact is expected to help NSES accelerate the rollout of its trading systems and clearing infrastructure before its planned early-2026 trading launch.

The Somali bourse also wants to develop Sukuk bonds, Islamic equity screens, and Shariah-aligned REITs to match the country’s market profile. Nairobi’s experience with Islamic finance products is expected to support this expansion.

Diaspora capital: the biggest prize

Somalia receives an estimated US$2 billion in annual diaspora remittances. Much of that money goes into consumption and informal investment. NSES wants to shift those flows into listed companies, long-term corporate debt and regulated investment vehicles.

The EastAfrican reported that NSES is preparing for its first IPOs in 2026, with an explicit strategy to mobilise diaspora investors searching for regulated assets linked to Somalia’s fast-rebuilding economy. That report appears here. Analysts quoted in the piece said diaspora demand could give the exchange early liquidity even before domestic institutional investors deepen.

For Kenyan companies, cross-listing on NSES offers access to a market where competition for capital remains low. Companies with operations in Somalia—particularly in telecommunications, logistics, manufacturing and financial services—stand to benefit from sharper visibility among Somali investors.

Shaping East Africa’s financial integration

The NSES-NSE partnership aligns with ongoing work within the East African Securities Exchanges Association (EASEA) to harmonise trading rules and promote regional capital mobility. Africa Global Funds reported that the collaboration will support efforts to build seamless cross-border investment channels across the Horn of Africa. Their coverage appears here.

If NSES successfully launches trading in 2026, Somalia will join Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda in advancing regional financial integration.

Challenges that could slow momentum

Despite the optimism, the risks remain significant.

No company has listed yet. Liquidity will depend heavily on the success of the first few listings.
Regulatory capacity is still developing. Somalia is building its securities framework from scratch.
Security concerns persist. Market stability depends on broader political and economic reforms.
Cross-border complexity remains high. Dual listings require coordination on taxation, currency settlement and investor-protection rules.

Analysts quoted by Zawya warned that without rapid listings and visible liquidity, investor confidence may lag behind the exchange’s ambitions. Their report is available here.

What to watch in 2026

The next 12 months will determine whether NSES becomes a credible market or remains a frontier experiment. Key indicators include:

  • The identity and timing of the first Kenyan listings.
  • Publication of NSES’s full trading rulebook and listing framework.
  • The launch of Sukuk and Islamic equity products.
  • Initial trading volumes during the first 90 days.
  • Uptake by diaspora investors.

If NSES delivers on these milestones, it could shift Somalia’s economy from informal financing to structured capital formation. It could also become an important link connecting Mogadishu, Nairobi and regional investors seeking exposure to post-conflict recovery markets.

Somalia’s bourse is young. But its regional ambitions—and its ability to pull Kenyan firms into its orbit—signal a bold attempt to rewrite how capital flows across the Horn of Africa.

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Naivas Sets Bold 80% Store Expansion Plan

The supermarket chain aims to open new outlets in Nairobi suburbs and key second-tier towns, including Nakuru, Kiambu, and Mombasa. CEO Andreas von Paleske says this expansion marks a new era of professional management for Naivas.

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Naivas’ expansion is expected to create thousands of jobs and strengthen local supply chains across Kenya. Analysts say the move will cement the retailer’s position as the leading supermarket chain in the country.

Naivas plans an 80% rise in outlets as strong consumer demand powers Kenya’s biggest retail expansion.

Retail Growth Driven by Consumer Demand

Kenya’s largest supermarket chain, Naivas, is targeting a major expansion of up to 80% more outlets, reflecting strong nationwide consumer demand. According to a Bloomberg report and corroborated by Business Daily Africa, the retailer aims to increase its footprint from 111 stores to nearly 200 over the next several years.

The chain has benefited from Kenya’s rising disposable income, urbanisation, and growing preference for modern retail formats. Analysts say this expansion positions Naivas as a dominant player in a market still recovering from the collapse of legacy chains such as Nakumatt, Uchumi, and Tuskys.


Leadership Transition Marks New Era

Naivas’ aggressive growth coincides with a leadership change. Long-serving CEO David Kimani stepped down in October 2025 after guiding the company through a transformative decade. Kimani will remain as an adviser to the board and the founding Mukuha family, according to Business Daily.

He said at the time:

“Naivas was built for Kenyans, and our mission has always been to bring modern retail closer to every household. The fundamentals are strong, and this is the right time to scale.”

Succeeding him is Andreas von Paleske, Naivas’ first non-family CEO. Von Paleske highlighted the retailer’s strong foundations:

“Naivas has built an unmatched bond with Kenyan households. Our priority now is to scale this trusted model with discipline and ambition.”

Business Daily noted that von Paleske’s appointment signals a professionalisation of management aimed at sustaining long-term growth.


Investor Backing Enables Expansion

The planned growth is supported by IBL Group, IFC, and Proparco, who have all invested in Naivas’ recent funding rounds. Bloomberg and Business Daily report that IBL Group chairman Arnaud Lagesse described Naivas as:

“A remarkable retail success story rooted in strong values, operational excellence, and deep understanding of the Kenyan consumer.”

IFC emphasised that Naivas supports “thousands of direct and indirect jobs” and plays a critical role in local supply chains, from farmers to logistics providers.


Targeted Store Rollouts

Naivas will focus expansion on second-tier towns and rapidly growing urban corridors. Target counties include Nakuru, Kiambu, Uasin Gishu, Machakos, and Mombasa, while urban neighbourhoods in Nairobi such as Ruiru, Ruai, Kamulu, and Athi River are also on the shortlist.

Business Daily reports that these areas are experiencing strong population growth and rising middle-class income, creating ideal conditions for modern retail.


Supply Chain and Jobs Impact

Naivas is one of Kenya’s largest private-sector employers with more than 10,000 staff. Analysts project that the expansion could generate an additional 7,000–8,000 jobs, spanning retail operations, logistics, merchandising, and distribution.

FMCG executives praise Naivas’ reliability, noting that it is “more predictable and data-driven than almost any other chain in East Africa,” according to Business Daily. Local suppliers also benefit from the chain’s growing footprint, which strengthens regional supply chains and improves market access.


Outlook for Kenya’s Retail Sector

Despite macroeconomic challenges such as inflation and rising logistics costs, Naivas’ leadership remains confident. Von Paleske told Bloomberg:

“Retail demand in Kenya remains robust. Our focus is to execute with excellence, invest prudently, and deliver consistent value to customers nationwide.”

Analysts predict that if executed effectively, Naivas’ 80% expansion will cement its position as Kenya’s leading retailer and potentially a regional powerhouse in East Africa.

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