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Tanzania Eyes $15B in US FDI as AGOA Deadline Nears

Dar es Salaam is pressing Washington to reauthorize AGOA before its September 30 deadline. President Donald Trump’s tariff stance clouds the outcome, leaving Congress with the final say.

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Tanzania is targeting $15 billion in U.S. foreign direct investment by 2026 after securing $6.6 billion last fiscal year. Officials say mining, agro-processing, and logistics will anchor the push.
Vice President Philip Mpango urged U.S. firms to seize Tanzania’s investment opportunities during the UNGA forum. He said the nation is improving its infrastructure and business climate to attract $15 billion in FDI by 2026.

Tanzania seeks $15B in U.S. FDI by 2026, banking on AGOA reauthorization and UNGA momentum to secure investment in mining, agro-processing, and logistics.

Tanzania Stakes $15B US FDI Push as AGOA Faces Uncertain Future

Tanzania is launching a major bid to attract $15 billion in U.S. foreign direct investment by 2026, leveraging the United Nations General Assembly in New York to woo American business. The pitch comes against a volatile backdrop: the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is set to expire on September 30, 2025, and under President Donald J. Trump’s sweeping tariff agenda, its renewal now hangs in the balance.

In the year ended June 30, 2025, the Tanzania Investment Centre recorded FDI inflows of $6.6 billion, up from $5.4 billion the previous year—strong growth, but a far cry from the government’s new target. At the Tanzania–U.S. Trade and Investment Forum on the sidelines of UNGA, Vice President Philip Mpango delivered a direct appeal:

“Tanzania is rapidly improving its infrastructure and business climate. We invite American investors to seize these opportunities, while Tanzanian entrepreneurs must also think globally and engage with the U.S. market.”


Strategic Pillars: Minerals, Processing & Logistics

Dar es Salaam is spotlighting its mineral endowments—graphite at Mahenge, nickel–cobalt at Kabanga, and hard-rock lithium deposits—as priority projects aligned with the global push into electric vehicles and clean energy supply chains. The government also aims to attract U.S. partners in agro-processing (cashew, coffee, cotton), local pharmaceutical manufacturing, logistics projects tied to its expanding Standard Gauge Railway network, and value chains linking mines to battery or EV component assembly.

Tanzania’s digital sector is another draw: mobile money transactions topped $75 billion in 2024, according to the Bank of Tanzania, making fintech and payments a salient area for U.S. interest.


AGOA in the Crosshairs

Tanzania’s timing is no coincidence. AGOA, the duty-free trade arrangement that has underpinned U.S.–Africa commerce since 2000, is due to expire in days. Under the Trump administration, sweeping tariff policies introduced in April 2025—including reciprocal levies on African exports—have cast serious doubt on whether AGOA can survive in its current form. Reuters reported last week that Lesotho officials were told Washington is considering only a one-year stopgap extension.

African manufacturers are now mounting a last-minute lobbying effort. In mid-September 2025, delegations from Kenya and other beneficiary nations visited Washington to urge Congress to approve a short extension. As one Kenyan apparel exporter told Reuters, “It’s like a house of cards that will collapse” if AGOA lapses.


Economic Stakes for Tanzania & the Region

For Tanzania, success in this gambit could accelerate its structural shift: from raw exports toward value-added industries, creating jobs and enhancing revenue capture. But the path is fraught—investors will demand legal certainty, efficient regulation, and protection from policy reversals.

For East Africa, Tanzania’s rise could recalibrate the region’s investment map. Neighboring nations like Kenya, Rwanda, and Uganda may respond by stepping up reforms to remain competitive. Under a renewed U.S. framework or successor to AGOA, Tanzania could serve as a regional export and assembly hub, especially under the African Continental Free Trade Area, which integrates a market of 1.3 billion people.

But the risks are real. Without tariff privileges, many sectors—textiles, agro-exports, light manufacturing—could collapse under steep U.S. import barriers. And global FDI flows themselves are already under strain: UNCTAD reports that international investment fell 11% in 2024, citing rising trade tensions and investor caution.


Resilience & Signals

Some financial signals support Tanzania’s case. In June 2025, the IMF disbursed $448 million to Tanzania under dual arrangements, giving the country greater fiscal breathing room.

But investor confidence is fragile. In July 2025, BHP exited its 17% stake in the Kabanga Nickel Project, selling to partner Lifezone Metals—a move seen by some as undermining faith in large-scale mining in Tanzania.

Meanwhile, Washington’s posture remains uncertain. Some analysts see pockets of bipartisan interest in AGOA or alternative U.S.–Africa trade mechanisms, while others warn that Trump’s “America First” policies may severely restrict Africa’s access to the U.S. market.


What to Watch

  • Whether Congress approves a clean AGOA extension or alternative trade legislation
  • Which sectors (mineral refining, EV value chains, agro-processing) secure early U.S. investments
  • How Tanzania responds in practice—legal reforms, land tenure, regulatory transparency
  • Responses from regional peers hoping to retain or win U.S. attention

Tanzania’s $15 billion aspiration is more than economic ambition—it’s a litmus test of whether it can convert diplomatic momentum into hard capital while navigating shifting U.S. trade winds.

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Diageo to Sell EABL Stake to Asahi for $2.3bn

Japan’s Asahi is set to acquire control of EABL as Diageo exits direct ownership after more than five decades. The $2.3bn deal underscores rising Asian investment in African consumer markets.

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East African Breweries will come under Asahi’s control pending regulatory approvals in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. Diageo will retain a regional presence through long-term brand licensing agreements.

Diageo will sell its 65% stake in EABL to Japan’s Asahi for $2.3bn (Sh297bn), reshaping East Africa’s beer market.

NAIROBI / LONDON, Dec. 17 — British spirits maker Diagoo Plc. has agreed to sell its 65 percent controlling its 65 percent controlling stake in East African Breweries Ltd (EABL) to Japan’s Asahi Group Holdings in a transaction valued at about $2.3 billion (roughly Sh297 billion), a deal that will redraw ownership of one of East Africa’s most strategic consumer goods companies.

The transaction, announced on Tuesday, will see Diageo exit direct equity ownership of EABL after more than five decades, while retaining a commercial presence in the region through long-term brand and licensing arrangements. The deal is expected to close in the second half of 2026, subject to regulatory approvals across Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania.

Strategic reset for Diageo

Diageo said the disposal forms part of a broader strategy to simplify its portfolio, strengthen its balance sheet and focus capital on faster-growing premium spirits categories globally.

“This transaction delivers significant value for shareholders and further accelerates our commitment to deleveraging,” Diageo interim chief executive Nik Jhangiani said in a statement, adding that the sale is expected to reduce net debt leverage by around 0.25 times.

The London-listed group, which owns global brands including Johnnie Walker, Smirnoff and Guinness, said it will continue to participate in East African markets through licensing agreements covering Guinness and selected spirits and ready-to-drink products.

Analysts say the move reflects Diageo’s growing focus on capital discipline as global alcohol consumption slows in some mature markets amid inflationary pressures and changing consumer preferences.

Asahi’s Africa expansion

For Asahi, Japan’s largest brewer by revenue, the acquisition marks a decisive entry into sub-Saharan Africa, a region viewed by global beverage groups as a long-term growth frontier due to demographics, urbanisation and rising disposable incomes.

“Asahi sees EABL as a high-quality business with strong brands, leading market positions and deep roots in its communities,” Asahi president and CEO Atsushi Katsuki said, noting that the group intends to invest for sustainable, long-term growth.

Asahi said it plans to retain EABL’s existing listings on the Nairobi Securities Exchange, Uganda Securities Exchange and Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange, preserving local and regional investor participation.

A regional heavyweight

Founded in 1922, EABL dominates beer and spirits markets in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania through brands such as Tusker, Bell Lager, Serengeti and Pilsner, and operates major breweries in Nairobi, Kampala and Dar es Salaam.

For the financial year ended June 30, 2025, EABL reported net sales of $996 million, EBITDA of $258 million and net profit of $94 million, according to company filings. Net debt stood at approximately $229 million.

Deal analysts estimate the transaction values EABL at an enterprise value of about $4.8 billion, equivalent to roughly 17 times EBITDA, a multiple that reflects both its dominant market position and the scarcity value of scaled consumer businesses in East Africa.

Market reaction

Shares of Diageo rose modestly in early trading in London following the announcement, while EABL shares gained on the Nairobi bourse as investors welcomed clarity on the brewer’s long-term ownership.

“This is a clean exit for Diageo at an attractive valuation, while Asahi gains a rare platform in a high-growth region,” said a Nairobi-based equity analyst who follows consumer stocks.

Regulatory and political lens

The deal will undergo scrutiny from competition authorities in the three core EABL markets, where the brewer plays a major role in employment, tax revenues and agricultural supply chains, particularly barley and sorghum sourcing from smallholder farmers.

Kenya’s Treasury and trade officials are also expected to examine the transaction’s implications for local manufacturing and exports, given EABL’s status as one of the country’s largest listed companies and taxpayers.

A changing global drinks landscape

Diageo’s exit from EABL follows earlier divestments across Africa, including sales of breweries in Cameroon, Ghana and Ethiopia, as multinational drinks firms recalibrate portfolios in response to tighter capital markets and shifting consumption patterns.

At the same time, Asian groups such as Asahi, Kirin and Suntory have been stepping up overseas investments to offset slower growth at home.

What comes next

Once completed, the transaction will mark one of the largest cross-border acquisitions in East Africa’s consumer sector, potentially ushering in new investment, technology transfer and governance changes at EABL.

For now, investors and regulators will be watching closely to see how Asahi balances global ambitions with EABL’s deeply rooted local brands — and how Diageo’s strategic retreat reshapes its footprint on the African continent.

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Somalia Bourse Targets Kenya Listings

Investors say the cross-listing partnership with the Nairobi bourse could unlock long-term liquidity in the Horn of Africa. Regulators in Mogadishu expect listings to rise in 2026.

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The launch of the Somalia Securities Exchange signals growing confidence in the nation’s economic reforms. Its collaboration with Kenya’s capital markets will shape future investor flows.

Somalia’s new Securities Exchange targets Kenyan companies for cross-listing as Mogadishu pursues regional integration and deeper capital markets reforms.

New cross-listing pact aims to draw East African companies and Somali diaspora capital as NSES prepares for 2026 trading launch

Somalia’s new National Securities Exchange (NSES) is positioning itself as East Africa’s youngest investment hub after signing a cross-listing pact with the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) in late November 2025. The agreement gives the Mogadishu-based exchange a fast route into regional markets and strengthens Somalia’s push to convert its vast diaspora savings into formal investment.

NSES was launched on 19 June 2025 following years of planning by the Somali government, regulators and private-sector partners. It is Somalia’s first modern securities exchange since state collapse in 1991. The exchange is still building its regulatory systems and trading infrastructure, but the new partnership with Nairobi signals that Somalia intends to integrate quickly into East Africa’s capital-markets architecture.

The signing ceremony, reported by Business Daily Africa in a November 30 article, highlighted NSES’s intention to attract Kenyan companies as early anchor listings. The outlet noted that NSES is targeting big Kenyan firms for cross-listing as part of its early-stage strategy. The article is accessible via Business Daily’s markets section here.

NSES CEO Yasin M. Ibar told The EastAfrican that the exchange has already held discussions with four Kenyan companies operating across finance, logistics and real estate. His remarks were published in a detailed regional analysis by The EastAfrican, which reported that these companies are assessing opportunities to tap Somalia’s fast-growing business environment. That story is available here.

We have received interest from Kenyan listed companies for cross-listing,” Ibar said. “We expect about four companies to list on NSES once systems are fully operational.” His comments shed light on the early momentum behind a market that has yet to conduct its first trade.

A strategy built on credibility and speed

For Somalia, cross-listing is a shortcut to credibility. By aligning with Kenya’s NSE—one of Africa’s oldest bourses—NSES gains access to regulatory support, surveillance tools and market-development expertise. Kenya’s state news agency reported that the MoU covers technology transfer, market-surveillance frameworks, joint investor-education programmes, and co-development of Shariah-compliant products. That report is available through Kenya News.

The pact is expected to help NSES accelerate the rollout of its trading systems and clearing infrastructure before its planned early-2026 trading launch.

The Somali bourse also wants to develop Sukuk bonds, Islamic equity screens, and Shariah-aligned REITs to match the country’s market profile. Nairobi’s experience with Islamic finance products is expected to support this expansion.

Diaspora capital: the biggest prize

Somalia receives an estimated US$2 billion in annual diaspora remittances. Much of that money goes into consumption and informal investment. NSES wants to shift those flows into listed companies, long-term corporate debt and regulated investment vehicles.

The EastAfrican reported that NSES is preparing for its first IPOs in 2026, with an explicit strategy to mobilise diaspora investors searching for regulated assets linked to Somalia’s fast-rebuilding economy. That report appears here. Analysts quoted in the piece said diaspora demand could give the exchange early liquidity even before domestic institutional investors deepen.

For Kenyan companies, cross-listing on NSES offers access to a market where competition for capital remains low. Companies with operations in Somalia—particularly in telecommunications, logistics, manufacturing and financial services—stand to benefit from sharper visibility among Somali investors.

Shaping East Africa’s financial integration

The NSES-NSE partnership aligns with ongoing work within the East African Securities Exchanges Association (EASEA) to harmonise trading rules and promote regional capital mobility. Africa Global Funds reported that the collaboration will support efforts to build seamless cross-border investment channels across the Horn of Africa. Their coverage appears here.

If NSES successfully launches trading in 2026, Somalia will join Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda in advancing regional financial integration.

Challenges that could slow momentum

Despite the optimism, the risks remain significant.

No company has listed yet. Liquidity will depend heavily on the success of the first few listings.
Regulatory capacity is still developing. Somalia is building its securities framework from scratch.
Security concerns persist. Market stability depends on broader political and economic reforms.
Cross-border complexity remains high. Dual listings require coordination on taxation, currency settlement and investor-protection rules.

Analysts quoted by Zawya warned that without rapid listings and visible liquidity, investor confidence may lag behind the exchange’s ambitions. Their report is available here.

What to watch in 2026

The next 12 months will determine whether NSES becomes a credible market or remains a frontier experiment. Key indicators include:

  • The identity and timing of the first Kenyan listings.
  • Publication of NSES’s full trading rulebook and listing framework.
  • The launch of Sukuk and Islamic equity products.
  • Initial trading volumes during the first 90 days.
  • Uptake by diaspora investors.

If NSES delivers on these milestones, it could shift Somalia’s economy from informal financing to structured capital formation. It could also become an important link connecting Mogadishu, Nairobi and regional investors seeking exposure to post-conflict recovery markets.

Somalia’s bourse is young. But its regional ambitions—and its ability to pull Kenyan firms into its orbit—signal a bold attempt to rewrite how capital flows across the Horn of Africa.

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Naivas Sets Bold 80% Store Expansion Plan

The supermarket chain aims to open new outlets in Nairobi suburbs and key second-tier towns, including Nakuru, Kiambu, and Mombasa. CEO Andreas von Paleske says this expansion marks a new era of professional management for Naivas.

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Naivas’ expansion is expected to create thousands of jobs and strengthen local supply chains across Kenya. Analysts say the move will cement the retailer’s position as the leading supermarket chain in the country.

Naivas plans an 80% rise in outlets as strong consumer demand powers Kenya’s biggest retail expansion.

Retail Growth Driven by Consumer Demand

Kenya’s largest supermarket chain, Naivas, is targeting a major expansion of up to 80% more outlets, reflecting strong nationwide consumer demand. According to a Bloomberg report and corroborated by Business Daily Africa, the retailer aims to increase its footprint from 111 stores to nearly 200 over the next several years.

The chain has benefited from Kenya’s rising disposable income, urbanisation, and growing preference for modern retail formats. Analysts say this expansion positions Naivas as a dominant player in a market still recovering from the collapse of legacy chains such as Nakumatt, Uchumi, and Tuskys.


Leadership Transition Marks New Era

Naivas’ aggressive growth coincides with a leadership change. Long-serving CEO David Kimani stepped down in October 2025 after guiding the company through a transformative decade. Kimani will remain as an adviser to the board and the founding Mukuha family, according to Business Daily.

He said at the time:

“Naivas was built for Kenyans, and our mission has always been to bring modern retail closer to every household. The fundamentals are strong, and this is the right time to scale.”

Succeeding him is Andreas von Paleske, Naivas’ first non-family CEO. Von Paleske highlighted the retailer’s strong foundations:

“Naivas has built an unmatched bond with Kenyan households. Our priority now is to scale this trusted model with discipline and ambition.”

Business Daily noted that von Paleske’s appointment signals a professionalisation of management aimed at sustaining long-term growth.


Investor Backing Enables Expansion

The planned growth is supported by IBL Group, IFC, and Proparco, who have all invested in Naivas’ recent funding rounds. Bloomberg and Business Daily report that IBL Group chairman Arnaud Lagesse described Naivas as:

“A remarkable retail success story rooted in strong values, operational excellence, and deep understanding of the Kenyan consumer.”

IFC emphasised that Naivas supports “thousands of direct and indirect jobs” and plays a critical role in local supply chains, from farmers to logistics providers.


Targeted Store Rollouts

Naivas will focus expansion on second-tier towns and rapidly growing urban corridors. Target counties include Nakuru, Kiambu, Uasin Gishu, Machakos, and Mombasa, while urban neighbourhoods in Nairobi such as Ruiru, Ruai, Kamulu, and Athi River are also on the shortlist.

Business Daily reports that these areas are experiencing strong population growth and rising middle-class income, creating ideal conditions for modern retail.


Supply Chain and Jobs Impact

Naivas is one of Kenya’s largest private-sector employers with more than 10,000 staff. Analysts project that the expansion could generate an additional 7,000–8,000 jobs, spanning retail operations, logistics, merchandising, and distribution.

FMCG executives praise Naivas’ reliability, noting that it is “more predictable and data-driven than almost any other chain in East Africa,” according to Business Daily. Local suppliers also benefit from the chain’s growing footprint, which strengthens regional supply chains and improves market access.


Outlook for Kenya’s Retail Sector

Despite macroeconomic challenges such as inflation and rising logistics costs, Naivas’ leadership remains confident. Von Paleske told Bloomberg:

“Retail demand in Kenya remains robust. Our focus is to execute with excellence, invest prudently, and deliver consistent value to customers nationwide.”

Analysts predict that if executed effectively, Naivas’ 80% expansion will cement its position as Kenya’s leading retailer and potentially a regional powerhouse in East Africa.

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