Regional Security & Peacebuilding
Kabila’s Nairobi Meeting Deepens DRC–Kenya Rift
Kenya faces diplomatic pressure after hosting a meeting of Congolese opposition figures led by Kabila.
Joseph Kabila’s Nairobi appearance sparks diplomatic tension as Kinshasa and Nairobi navigate political and regional stakes in Central Africa.
Kinshasa Condemns Kabila’s Political Re-Emergence
The former president of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Joseph Kabila, re-emerged publicly in Nairobi for the first time since his death sentence in absentia on treason and war-crimes charges. The surprise gathering, held in Kenya’s capital, brought together more than a dozen Congolese opposition leaders who announced the creation of a political front aimed at “restoring democracy” and “ending tyranny” in the DRC.
The Nairobi conclave further escalates diplomatic tensions between the two African states.
Kinshasa reacted sharply. Deputy Prime Minister for Interior and Security Jacquemain Shabani described the Nairobi event as a “black mass organised by convicted criminals against our country.” He said the government would “take action against the actors and initiators of this meeting if it is proven to be preparing to destabilise the institutions of the republic.”
Government spokesman Patrick Muyaya added that Kabila’s actions undermine sovereignty and could “reignite conflict” in an already volatile region. The government’s official line remains that Kabila’s sentence—handed down on 30 September 2025 by a military court—is legally binding and reflects his alleged links with the M23 rebel group.
Kenya Walks a Diplomatic Tightrope
Kenya’s response has been measured but telling. Officials at the Ministry of Foreign and Diaspora Affairs confirmed awareness of the meeting and provided routine security for participants. However, the ministry declined to comment on the political nature of the gathering, emphasising Kenya’s policy of “non-interference in the internal affairs of friendly nations.”
A senior diplomat quoted by The East African said Nairobi views such meetings as legitimate so long as they promote dialogue rather than armed conflict. Yet analysts warn that even this neutral posture could strain bilateral ties, given Kinshasa’s accusations that Kenya hosts rebel sympathisers.
Kenya has invested heavily in peace mediation across the Great Lakes region, from Sudan to South Sudan and Somalia. The optics of sheltering a former president convicted of treason threaten to blur Nairobi’s image as a regional stabiliser.
Who Is Joseph Kabila?
Kabila rose to power in 2001, at just 29, following the assassination of his father, President Laurent Kabila. He ruled until 2019, steering Africa’s second-largest country through two wars but facing persistent allegations of corruption, repression and electoral manipulation.
His decision to postpone elections beyond his constitutional term in 2017 sparked widespread unrest. When Félix Tshisekedi finally took office in 2019, it marked the first peaceful transfer of power in Congo’s post-colonial history.
Despite stepping down, Kabila retained significant influence through his party, the People’s Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD), and loyalists within the military and security services. His recent re-emergence revives long-simmering fears that he still commands covert networks in the DRC’s mineral-rich east.
In February, Kabila authored an op-ed in South Africa’s Sunday Times where he denied working with rebels but expressed sympathy for what he called their “struggle against oppression.”
Regional Stakes and the Great Lakes Equation
The DRC’s eastern provinces remain one of the world’s most unstable conflict zones. Armed groups, including M23, operate amid competition for control of cobalt and gold—minerals vital to global technology supply chains.
Kabila’s reappearance in Nairobi touches regional nerves for four key reasons:
- Sovereignty and Security: Kinshasa sees the meeting as a potential attempt to coordinate rebellion from abroad, threatening fragile national cohesion.
- Diplomatic Optics: Kenya, as an East African Community (EAC) member, faces the challenge of reconciling its openness with security sensitivities of partner states.
- Peacebuilding Pressure: Nairobi hosts the EAC-led Nairobi Process on Eastern DRC. Hosting Kabila could undermine its credibility as a neutral broker.
- Economic Interests: Kenya’s banks and logistics firms, including Equity Bank and Kenya Airways, are expanding in the DRC under EAC integration frameworks. Diplomatic strain could chill this growth.
Regional and Global Repercussions
The crisis tests the balance between democratic freedoms and regional diplomacy. Analysts at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) warn that renewed political instability could jeopardise multibillion-dollar infrastructure and energy projects linking Kenya, Uganda and the DRC.
Western governments, including the United States, have called for restraint, urging Kenya and the DRC to use dialogue channels to defuse tensions. The African Union likewise appealed for calm, reminding members of their obligations to respect sovereignty while protecting political freedoms.
What Comes Next
Observers are watching to see whether Kinshasa files a formal diplomatic protest or seeks Kabila’s extradition. Kenya may soon clarify its stance on hosting political exiles to protect its regional mediation role.
If Kabila’s movement gains traction among exiled politicians and diaspora communities, it could reshape Congo’s political landscape ahead of future elections. For now, Nairobi finds itself uncomfortably positioned at the crossroads of regional diplomacy and continental intrigue.
Regional Security & Peacebuilding
DRC-Rwanda Economic Pact Signed
The agreement includes the Ruzizi III Hydropower Project and plans for cross-border transport corridors. Analysts say this pact could stabilize the region and unlock investment opportunities for global corporations.
DRC and Rwanda initial US-backed economic deal to boost trade, infrastructure, and mineral investment in the Great Lakes region
Washington D.C., 7 November 2025 – The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda have signed a U.S.-backed economic cooperation framework, aiming to boost trade, infrastructure, and mineral development in the Great Lakes region. The deal, reported by Bloomberg, marks a major step in implementing the 2025 peace agreement between the two countries.
The framework outlines cooperation in mining, transport, energy, trade, healthcare, and environmental conservation. It also sets rules for resource management, aiming to prevent disputes that have plagued the eastern DRC in the past.
“This is a critical step for regional stability and economic growth,” a senior U.S. official said, highlighting the international community’s support.
What the Deal Covers
The pact focuses on several areas:
- Minerals: DRC’s rich reserves of cobalt, copper, lithium, and gold will be developed with transparency, opening opportunities for international investors.
- Infrastructure: Projects include the Ruzizi III Hydropower Project and new cross-border transport corridors to improve trade links.
- Trade and Business: The agreement aims to simplify customs and create economic zones along the border.
- Environment and Health: Both countries plan joint initiatives in public health and conservation.
Why It Matters
The timing of the agreement is significant. Years of conflict in eastern DRC, involving the M23 rebel group, have destabilized the region and affected trade and investment. (AP News) By focusing on development rather than just security, the pact signals a new approach to peace: using economic cooperation to strengthen stability.
Globally, the deal is important because:
- It opens African investment opportunities in minerals, energy, and infrastructure.
- It secures supply chains for critical minerals used in electric vehicles and batteries.
- It provides a model of peace through economic integration, relevant to other conflict-prone regions.
Challenges Ahead
Despite the optimism, obstacles remain:
- Security: Withdrawal of foreign troops from eastern DRC is still incomplete.
- Community trust: Local populations remain cautious after previous agreements failed to deliver results.
- Governance: Ensuring minerals benefit local communities rather than elites is essential.
- Geopolitical risks: Global interest in DRC’s resources makes the region sensitive to shifting international priorities.
Next Steps
The draft framework is expected to be finalized in the coming weeks. Implementation will include infrastructure development, mineral-sector reforms, and expanded trade initiatives. International investors and development agencies are watching closely, looking for stability and clear regulations to guide investments.
“This deal could change the trajectory of the Great Lakes region,” said an analyst tracking African economic development. “It’s a signal that diplomacy, trade, and investment can work hand-in-hand to secure peace and growth.”
Regional Security & Peacebuilding
Congo Conflict Escalates: M23 Rebel Parade in Goma and Army Reinforcements Threaten Fragile Peace
The Congolese army has reinforced its positions in North Kivu as clashes with M23 rebels intensify. Ceasefire violations reported this week signal that diplomatic efforts are faltering. Human rights groups warn of mass displacement and abuses against civilians if the fighting escalates.
On Sept. 18, 2025, M23 rebels paraded recruits in Goma as Congo’s army fortified positions, exposing the collapse of fragile peace efforts.
Congo Conflict Escalates: M23 Rebel Parade in Goma and Army Reinforcements Threaten Fragile Peace
Kinshasa, Sept. 19, 2025 — The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is sliding deeper into conflict after dramatic scenes this week revealed the fragility of peace efforts in the east.
On Thursday, September 18, 2025, thousands of newly recruited M23 fighters marched through the streets of Goma, North Kivu’s capital. The military parade, reported by the Associated Press, stunned residents and alarmed global observers. Many recruits looked underage, with some carrying wooden rifles — sparking fears of forced conscription and child soldiering.
Almost at the same time, Reuters confirmed that Congo’s national army was also strengthening its frontline positions. Both sides are now entrenched, undermining international mediation that had raised hopes earlier this year.
Peace Talks Faltering
The roots of the latest escalation date back to January 2025, when M23 rebels captured two major towns in North Kivu — their biggest advance in more than a decade. Washington and Doha quickly launched peace talks. Preliminary deals were signed in April and updated in July 2025.
But deadlines passed in August without progress. Rebels refused to withdraw unless political concessions were granted. President Félix Tshisekedi’s government rejected those demands outright, calling them unacceptable.
“Broken promises, fragile implementation and deep mistrust are holding back any progress,” said Kristof Titeca, a conflict studies professor at the University of Antwerp, in remarks to Reuters on Sept. 18, 2025.
The Parade in Goma
Thursday’s parade was meant to show M23’s strength. Instead, it exposed the weakness of the peace process.
Witnesses said thousands of fighters, many of them teenagers, marched in step through Goma’s streets. Some wore mismatched uniforms, others held sticks instead of rifles.
“The spectacle was designed to project power, but it reminded us of our vulnerability,” a local teacher told AP, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Human rights groups were quick to condemn the show of force. Amnesty International warned that the use of child soldiers “undermines fragile peace efforts and violates international law.”
Humanitarian Toll Rising
The human cost of the conflict keeps growing. The United Nations estimates that 2.7 million people have been displaced since the M23 resurgence in early 2025.
Camps around Goma, Bukavu, and Beni are overflowing. Aid groups warn of food shortages, lack of medicine, and looming disease outbreaks.
“The humanitarian situation is deteriorating by the day,” said a UNHCR spokesperson on Sept. 16, 2025. “Every escalation between the army and M23 creates new waves of displacement.”
Rwanda’s Shadow
Regional politics fuel the crisis. Congo accuses Rwanda of backing M23 to plunder minerals such as coltan and cobalt, critical for global electronics. Rwanda denies this, claiming its actions target the FDLR, a militia linked to the 1994 genocide.
In July 2025, U.S. mediators tried to broker a side deal between Kinshasa and Kigali. By September, little progress had been made, and mistrust deepened.
Trump’s Claim vs. Reality
Former U.S. President Donald Trump added confusion when, on Sept. 12, 2025, he declared the Congo war “over.” He credited American diplomacy and hinted at future U.S. investment in Congo’s minerals.
On the ground, the opposite is happening. “The war is not over — it is intensifying,” said a civil society leader in Goma on Sept. 18, 2025. “We see soldiers, not peacekeepers. We see children in uniform, not classrooms.”
Global Stakes
Congo’s minerals are central to the global economy. The country holds more than 70% of the world’s cobalt reserves, a key component for electric vehicle batteries and renewable energy technologies.
A report by the International Crisis Group on Sept. 10, 2025, warned that instability in eastern Congo could undermine global climate goals, as battery supply chains depend heavily on Congolese output.
A Vicious Cycle
Despite UN missions, African Union pressure, and U.S.–Qatar mediation, Congo remains trapped in cycles of violence. Kinshasa refuses to give up territory. M23 refuses to retreat without guarantees.
Civilians are caught in the middle. In Kanyaruchinya camp outside Goma, a displaced woman told AP on Sept. 18, 2025: “Every parade, every new gun, means another month before we can return home.”
Conclusion
The events of mid-September 2025 — the rebel parade, army reinforcements, and missed deadlines — mark a sobering setback for peace in eastern Congo.
Unless urgent progress is made, analysts fear the DRC could slide into its bloodiest conflict since the early 2000s. For now, peace is not just fragile — it is slipping away.
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