Regional Security & Peacebuilding
M23 Rebels Tighten Grip, Threaten Eastern Congo
Fresh attacks by M23 in South Kivu threaten the Washington peace accord between DRC and Rwanda. Experts say this M23 rebel entrenchment DRC demonstrates the rise of a semi-permanent rebel-controlled zone.
M23 rebels deepen control of eastern DRC, running civil functions, borders and taxes, threatening regional security and global mineral supply chains.
M23 Rebels Consolidate Power in Eastern Congo as State Weakens
A new investigation by Reuters shows that theM23 rebel group has moved far beyond guerrilla warfare. The group now runs a de facto state across large areas of eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. As a result, M23 controls civil administration, policing, taxation, border routes and even issues travel visas, creating an alternative government in one of Africa’s most volatile regions.
Field reports collected through December 2025 show that M23 has entrenched administrative systems that resemble formal state organs. The rebels have set up tax checkpoints, immigration counters and civilian complaint offices. Local residents told Reuters they seek permits, movement papers and commercial clearance from M23 officers—functions normally managed by the Congolese state.
Meanwhile, the group’s power has expanded rapidly. M23 has increased its fighting force from an estimated 5,000 to about 14,000 fighters, according to military and diplomatic sources referenced in the Reuters investigation. The expansion positions M23 as one of the most formidable armed groups in Central Africa.
Mineral Revenue Is Fueling a Parallel Government
M23’s rise is closely tied to its access to lucrative mining areas in North Kivu, where the group extracts revenue from tin, tantalum, tungsten and cobalt sites. These minerals are critical inputs for electric vehicles, smartphones, aviation components and global battery production.
Because of this, analysts warn that parts of the global clean-energy and electronics market may now rely indirectly on M23-controlled supply chains. Mines formerly under state or private management have been absorbed into the group’s taxation system, generating steady cash flow.
Exporters and traders interviewed by Reuters said some minerals exported through Rwanda and Uganda increasingly originate from M23-controlled territories. This raises concerns over traceability, sanctions risks and disruptions in supply networks if conflict escalates.
Regional Security Threat Intensifies
M23’s territorial consolidation is damaging DRC’s sovereignty at a sensitive moment. The December peace accord between Congo and Rwanda—brokered in Washington—was intended to halt years of conflict. However, the new report suggests the situation on the ground is moving in the opposite direction.
At the same time, Congolese officials accuse Rwanda of backing M23, a claim Kigali denies. The allegations have intensified diplomatic tensions across the Great Lakes region. Security analysts say the rebels’ growing administrative capabilities will make any negotiated demobilization or withdrawal far more complicated.
Humanitarian agencies warn that continued fighting in Kivu could trigger new waves of displacement. More than six million people are already internally displaced in eastern DRC, the highest level in the country’s modern history.
Risk of Long-Term Partition Raises Alarm
Diplomats told Reuters they fear the conflict could evolve into a long-term de facto partition, with M23 entrenched as an autonomous authority in strategic border and mineral corridors. Such a scenario would mirror past breakaway regions in Africa and prolong instability.
Consequently, the African Union and United Nations are weighing options to increase monitoring, border verification and pressure on external actors believed to influence the conflict. However, officials concede privately that the rebels’ deepening administrative structures will be difficult to dismantle without a negotiated settlement backed by credible security guarantees.
Global Supply Chains Now Exposed
M23’s control over key mines has implications well beyond Congo. Major battery manufacturers, electronics firms and automotive companies depend on stable cobalt and coltan flows from the region. Even modest conflict-related disruptions can affect global production cycles.
The Reuters report notes that traders and manufacturers already face delays, inconsistent paperwork and new unofficial fees imposed by the rebels. As a result, buyers in Europe and Asia are reassessing their sourcing strategies to reduce dependency risks. Commodity analysts say the situation could elevate global cobalt prices if instability persists.
What to Watch Next
Observers are monitoring four critical developments:
- Whether M23 expands beyond current borders into South Kivu or key mining towns.
- If Rwanda and DRC de-escalate tensions linked to the stalled peace deal.
- How the rebel tax system evolves as mineral processing increases.
- Whether international buyers shift sourcing, pressuring the rebels’ revenue model.
In summary, the M23 rebel takeover exposes deep structural weaknesses in the Congolese state and threatens to reshape security, diplomacy and mineral supply chains across Africa and beyond.
Regional Security & Peacebuilding
Burundi Struggles as Refugees Flee DRC Violence
Fighting involving Rwanda-linked M23 rebels has displaced tens of thousands. The UN calls for international support to prevent a full-scale crisis in Burundi.
Over 84,000 Congolese refugees flee eastern DRC to Burundi, overwhelming humanitarian resources amid M23 rebel fighting.
Burundi faces refugee crisis amid DRC conflict
Burundi is grappling with a sudden humanitarian crisis as over 84,000 Congolese refugees flee eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). According to Reuters, the influx has overwhelmed the country’s limited humanitarian infrastructure.
The surge comes amid ongoing clashes involving the Rwanda-linked M23 rebel group, despite diplomatic pressure from the Uniteed States and other international actors calling for a ceasefire. The Burundian government has warned that existing facilities and resources are stretched to breaking point.
Impact on Burundi’s resources
Humanitarian agencies note that Burundi’s refugee camps, food supplies, and medical facilities are insufficient to meet the sudden influx. Local authorities are appealing for international support to prevent a full-scale humanitarian disaster.
The UN refugee agency, UNHCR, has mobilized additional staff and resources but stresses that the scale of arrivals exceeds expectations. Aid organizations are particularly concerned about health risks, malnutrition, and access to clean water.
Background: M23 rebel offensive
The M23 rebel group, linked to Rwanda, launched an offensive in eastern DRC, targeting key towns and displacing tens of thousands. The fighting has intensified insecurity in North Kivu and Ituri provinces, prompting mass movement into neighboring countries, especially Burundi.
The United Nations Security Council condemned the attacks, urging Rwanda to halt any support for M23. Despite international appeals, violence persists, exacerbating regional instability. (UN Security Council)
Regional humanitarian implications
The refugee crisis adds pressure to the East African region, which already hosts millions of displaced persons. Neighboring countries, including Rwanda, Uganda, and Tanzania, have been asked to coordinate support and aid distribution.
Analysts warn that failure to respond adequately could trigger cross-border tensions, strain resources, and worsen humanitarian conditions. Regional bodies like the East African Community (EAC) are engaging to support Burundi and coordinate relief.
International response
The UN and international aid organizations have launched emergency appeals. The World Food Programme (WFP) and UNICEF are prioritizing food, water, and shelter for the new arrivals.
US, EU, and African partners are reportedly providing funding and logistical support to assist Burundian authorities. Diplomats emphasize that long-term solutions require addressing the conflict at its source in eastern DRC.
Burundi government statements
Burundi’s officials have described the situation as “critical,” noting that existing refugee camps are overcrowded and under-resourced. Government representatives called for urgent international assistance to prevent a worsening crisis.
The Ministry of Human Rights also highlighted the psychological trauma experienced by children and women fleeing conflict zones. Humanitarian groups have set up emergency counseling and health services, but capacity remains limited.
Looking ahead
The refugee influx into Burundi highlights the fragility of regional peace and humanitarian capacity. Coordinated efforts from the UN, African Union, and neighboring states are critical to stabilize the situation.
Efforts to resolve the M23 conflict diplomatically remain ongoing, but analysts warn that without a ceasefire and political solution, Burundi and other neighbors will continue facing huge humanitarian pressure.
Regional Security & Peacebuilding
Rwanda M23 Offensive Seizes Uvira Town
Over 400 civilians have died amid renewed fighting in South Kivu. Regional leaders and international partners are pressing for renewed dialogue and protection of non-combatants.
Rwanda M23 offensive captures Uvira in eastern DRC, threatening peace efforts and escalating a humanitarian crisis in the region.
GOMA, DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO — The Rwanda M23 offensive gained momentum on Thursday as rebels seized the strategic town of Uvira in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, undermining regional stabilization efforts. The town, on the northern shore of Lake Tanganyika near the Burundi border, is a vital transport hub and administrative center in South Kivu province.
The advance follows a U.S.-brokered peace deal between Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame meant to halt hostilities. M23, not party to the agreement, continued its offensive, highlighting the fragility of diplomatic efforts that exclude armed factions.
Rebel Control and Civilian Displacement
Residents and local authorities reported that M23 fighters consolidated control over Uvira on Thursday, forcing the suspension of humanitarian operations and prompting thousands of civilians to flee. Gunfire was reported across parts of the town, with many people seeking refuge in homes or attempting to escape by boat across the lake. (AP News)
The capture follows M23’s earlier takeover of Bukavu, the provincial capital, showing the group’s rapid territorial gains. Analysts warn that controlling Uvira could allow M23 to push further into South Kivu, potentially destabilizing surrounding areas.
Humanitarian Impact
The humanitarian toll has been significant. Local officials report that more than 400 civilians have been killed since the renewed offensive began, with women, children, and older people disproportionately affected. Over 30,000 refugees have fled toward Burundi, straining local resources and prompting urgent calls for international assistance.
Humanitarian agencies warn that continued fighting may escalate displacement. Access to food, medical care, and shelter is increasingly limited, making urgent support essential.
Peace Deal Challenges
The U.S.-mediated peace agreement aimed to encourage cooperation between Tshisekedi and Kagame’s governments. With M23 advancing independently, the accord’s effectiveness is uncertain. Experts emphasize that any sustainable settlement requires the participation of all armed groups. (Reuters)
Relations between Kinshasa and Kigali remain tense. Congo has accused Rwanda of backing M23, a claim Kigali denies while pointing to alleged violations by Congolese forces.
Regional Security Implications
The seizure of Uvira has raised alarms across the region. Burundi has warned that its economic capital, Bujumbura, could be at risk and has strengthened border security. Regional bodies such as the East African Community and the African Union have called for restraint and renewed dialogue.
Western diplomats, including the United Nations, have urged all parties to uphold ceasefire commitments and protect civilians. Experts warn that continued instability could threaten broader Central and East African security.
Economic Risks
Eastern Congo is rich in minerals such as tin, tantalum, and gold, making it economically significant. Continued conflict threatens mining operations, regional trade routes, and foreign investment. Analysts note that prolonged unrest could stall cross-border infrastructure projects linking Congo, Rwanda, Uganda, and Tanzania. (Reuters)
Sustained insecurity also jeopardizes development initiatives and commerce, as investors frequently cite political stability as a prerequisite for economic engagement.
Outlook
With Uvira under M23 control, diplomatic efforts face a stern test. Leaders from the DRC, Rwanda, and international partners have indicated willingness to return to negotiations, but progress remains unclear. Humanitarian organizations continue to call for support to address displacement and protect civilians.
Human rights groups report widespread abuses, including forced displacement and attacks on non-combatants. They argue that peace will require not just ceasefires but accountability and civilian safeguards.
Conclusion
The Rwanda M23 offensive in Uvira is the most significant Africa-linked political and security story on Dec. 11, 2025. The offensive underscores the fragility of peace agreements, the acute humanitarian crisis, and the complex regional diplomatic landscape.
Regional Security & Peacebuilding
DRC-Rwanda Economic Pact Signed
The agreement includes the Ruzizi III Hydropower Project and plans for cross-border transport corridors. Analysts say this pact could stabilize the region and unlock investment opportunities for global corporations.
DRC and Rwanda initial US-backed economic deal to boost trade, infrastructure, and mineral investment in the Great Lakes region
Washington D.C., 7 November 2025 – The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda have signed a U.S.-backed economic cooperation framework, aiming to boost trade, infrastructure, and mineral development in the Great Lakes region. The deal, reported by Bloomberg, marks a major step in implementing the 2025 peace agreement between the two countries.
The framework outlines cooperation in mining, transport, energy, trade, healthcare, and environmental conservation. It also sets rules for resource management, aiming to prevent disputes that have plagued the eastern DRC in the past.
“This is a critical step for regional stability and economic growth,” a senior U.S. official said, highlighting the international community’s support.
What the Deal Covers
The pact focuses on several areas:
- Minerals: DRC’s rich reserves of cobalt, copper, lithium, and gold will be developed with transparency, opening opportunities for international investors.
- Infrastructure: Projects include the Ruzizi III Hydropower Project and new cross-border transport corridors to improve trade links.
- Trade and Business: The agreement aims to simplify customs and create economic zones along the border.
- Environment and Health: Both countries plan joint initiatives in public health and conservation.
Why It Matters
The timing of the agreement is significant. Years of conflict in eastern DRC, involving the M23 rebel group, have destabilized the region and affected trade and investment. (AP News) By focusing on development rather than just security, the pact signals a new approach to peace: using economic cooperation to strengthen stability.
Globally, the deal is important because:
- It opens African investment opportunities in minerals, energy, and infrastructure.
- It secures supply chains for critical minerals used in electric vehicles and batteries.
- It provides a model of peace through economic integration, relevant to other conflict-prone regions.
Challenges Ahead
Despite the optimism, obstacles remain:
- Security: Withdrawal of foreign troops from eastern DRC is still incomplete.
- Community trust: Local populations remain cautious after previous agreements failed to deliver results.
- Governance: Ensuring minerals benefit local communities rather than elites is essential.
- Geopolitical risks: Global interest in DRC’s resources makes the region sensitive to shifting international priorities.
Next Steps
The draft framework is expected to be finalized in the coming weeks. Implementation will include infrastructure development, mineral-sector reforms, and expanded trade initiatives. International investors and development agencies are watching closely, looking for stability and clear regulations to guide investments.
“This deal could change the trajectory of the Great Lakes region,” said an analyst tracking African economic development. “It’s a signal that diplomacy, trade, and investment can work hand-in-hand to secure peace and growth.”
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